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Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling

Author

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  • Katopodis, Theodoros
  • Markantonis, Iason
  • Vlachogiannis, Diamando
  • Politi, Nadia
  • Sfetsos, Athanasios

Abstract

This work introduces an assessment of the projected climatic changes in wind characteristics in Greece through the WRF model 5 × 5 km2, forced by the EC-EARTH Global Climate Model (GCM). Firstly, the model is validated against historic observations at 10 m, before being applied to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 that represent an average expected future and a worst-case scenario. Projected changes in the mean annual wind speed at 100 m, between the historic (1980–2004) and future (2020–2044) scenarios are found to vary locally between −5% and +20%, whereas for the Wind Energy Density (WED) this variation lies between −15% and +60%. Overall, robust and significant increases regarding the mean wind speeds were found mainly over the north and central-western Aegean region, the Island of Crete, as well over Greek mainland and the Ionian Sea. Both scenarios predicted higher statistically significant increases in the Weibull shape parameter values (of about 0.2) in the north–central Aegean, while the summer seasonal analysis, yielded significant decreases over the western Ionian Sea and south and south-western parts of Crete, which might be indicative of more gusty events. Finally, extreme wind speeds analysis indicated increases, which might affect wind turbines structural integrity.

Suggested Citation

  • Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:179:y:2021:i:c:p:427-444
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.07.061
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    3. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    4. Luzia, Graziela & Koivisto, Matti J. & Hahmann, Andrea N., 2023. "Validating EURO-CORDEX climate simulations for modelling European wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Nadia Politi & Diamando Vlachogiannis & Athanasios Sfetsos & Nikolaos Gounaris & Vassiliki Varela, 2023. "Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-15, January.

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