IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v179y2021icp427-444.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Katopodis, Theodoros
  • Markantonis, Iason
  • Vlachogiannis, Diamando
  • Politi, Nadia
  • Sfetsos, Athanasios

Abstract

This work introduces an assessment of the projected climatic changes in wind characteristics in Greece through the WRF model 5 × 5 km2, forced by the EC-EARTH Global Climate Model (GCM). Firstly, the model is validated against historic observations at 10 m, before being applied to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 that represent an average expected future and a worst-case scenario. Projected changes in the mean annual wind speed at 100 m, between the historic (1980–2004) and future (2020–2044) scenarios are found to vary locally between −5% and +20%, whereas for the Wind Energy Density (WED) this variation lies between −15% and +60%. Overall, robust and significant increases regarding the mean wind speeds were found mainly over the north and central-western Aegean region, the Island of Crete, as well over Greek mainland and the Ionian Sea. Both scenarios predicted higher statistically significant increases in the Weibull shape parameter values (of about 0.2) in the north–central Aegean, while the summer seasonal analysis, yielded significant decreases over the western Ionian Sea and south and south-western parts of Crete, which might be indicative of more gusty events. Finally, extreme wind speeds analysis indicated increases, which might affect wind turbines structural integrity.

Suggested Citation

  • Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:179:y:2021:i:c:p:427-444
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.07.061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148121010661
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2021.07.061?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    2. Sailor, David J. & Smith, Michael & Hart, Melissa, 2008. "Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2393-2406.
    3. Davy, Richard & Gnatiuk, Natalia & Pettersson, Lasse & Bobylev, Leonid, 2018. "Climate change impacts on wind energy potential in the European domain with a focus on the Black Sea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1652-1659.
    4. Giannaros, Theodore M. & Melas, Dimitrios & Ziomas, Ioannis, 2017. "Performance evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for assessing wind resource in Greece," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(PA), pages 190-198.
    5. Balakrishnan, N. & Kateri, M., 2008. "On the maximum likelihood estimation of parameters of Weibull distribution based on complete and censored data," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(17), pages 2971-2975, December.
    6. Fant, Charles & Adam Schlosser, C. & Strzepek, Kenneth, 2016. "The impact of climate change on wind and solar resources in southern Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 556-564.
    7. Breslow, Paul B. & Sailor, David J., 2002. "Vulnerability of wind power resources to climate change in the continental United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 585-598.
    8. Anton Orlov & Jana Sillmann & Ilaria Vigo, 2020. "Author Correction: Better seasonal forecasts for the renewable energy industry," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 271-271, March.
    9. Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J., 2010. "Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 430-437, January.
    10. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    11. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & Silva Santos, C., 2017. "Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 29-40.
    12. Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares & Pupo Nogueira, Larissa Pinheiro & Fleming, Fernanda Pereira & Troccoli, Alberto & , 2012. "Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-12.
    13. Isabelle Tobin & Robert Vautard & Irena Balog & François-Marie Bréon & Sonia Jerez & Paolo Ruti & Françoise Thais & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou, 2015. "Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 99-112, January.
    14. Santos, J.A. & Rochinha, C. & Liberato, M.L.R. & Reyers, M. & Pinto, J.G., 2015. "Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 68-80.
    15. Kotroni, V. & Lagouvardos, K. & Lykoudis, S., 2014. "High-resolution model-based wind atlas for Greece," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 479-489.
    16. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    17. Lledó, Ll. & Torralba, V. & Soret, A. & Ramon, J. & Doblas-Reyes, F.J., 2019. "Seasonal forecasts of wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 91-100.
    18. Anton Orlov & Jana Sillmann & Ilaria Vigo, 2020. "Better seasonal forecasts for the renewable energy industry," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 108-110, February.
    19. Costoya, X. & Rocha, A. & Carvalho, D., 2020. "Using bias-correction to improve future projections of offshore wind energy resource: A case study on the Iberian Peninsula," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    20. Koletsis, I. & Kotroni, V. & Lagouvardos, K. & Soukissian, T., 2016. "Assessment of offshore wind speed and power potential over the Mediterranean and the Black Seas under future climate changes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 234-245.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guanying Chen & Zhenming Ji, 2024. "A Review of Solar and Wind Energy Resource Projection Based on the Earth System Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    3. Nadia Politi & Diamando Vlachogiannis & Athanasios Sfetsos & Nikolaos Gounaris & Vassiliki Varela, 2023. "Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-15, January.
    4. Luzia, Graziela & Koivisto, Matti J. & Hahmann, Andrea N., 2023. "Validating EURO-CORDEX climate simulations for modelling European wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Shuangyi & Li, Xichen, 2021. "Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. deCastro, M. & Rusu, L. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2024. "Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. Soares, Pedro M.M. & Lima, Daniela C.A. & Cardoso, Rita M. & Nascimento, Manuel L. & Semedo, Alvaro, 2017. "Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 72-90.
    4. Vu Dinh, Quang & Doan, Quang-Van & Ngo-Duc, Thanh & Nguyen Dinh, Van & Dinh Duc, Nguyen, 2022. "Offshore wind resource in the context of global climate change over a tropical area," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    5. Tolga Kara & Ahmet Duran Şahin, 2023. "Implications of Climate Change on Wind Energy Potential," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.
    6. Daniel Ganea & Elena Mereuta & Liliana Rusu, 2018. "Estimation of the Near Future Wind Power Potential in the Black Sea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, November.
    7. Viviescas, Cindy & Lima, Lucas & Diuana, Fabio A. & Vasquez, Eveline & Ludovique, Camila & Silva, Gabriela N. & Huback, Vanessa & Magalar, Leticia & Szklo, Alexandre & Lucena, André F.P. & Schaeffer, , 2019. "Contribution of Variable Renewable Energy to increase energy security in Latin America: Complementarity and climate change impacts on wind and solar resources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Engeland, Kolbjørn & Borga, Marco & Creutin, Jean-Dominique & François, Baptiste & Ramos, Maria-Helena & Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2017. "Space-time variability of climate variables and intermittent renewable electricity production – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 600-617.
    9. Gonçalves-Ageitos, María & Barrera-Escoda, Antoni & Baldasano, Jose M. & Cunillera, Jordi, 2015. "Modelling wind resources in climate change scenarios in complex terrains," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 670-678.
    10. Wang, Bing & Ke, Ruo-Yu & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2014. "China׳s regional assessment of renewable energy vulnerability to climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-195.
    11. Santos, F. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & deCastro, M. & Añel, J.A. & Carvalho, D. & Costoya, Xurxo & Dias, J.M., 2018. "On the accuracy of CORDEX RCMs to project future winds over the Iberian Peninsula and surrounding ocean," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 289-300.
    12. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    13. He, J.Y. & Chan, P.W. & Li, Q.S. & Tong, H.W., 2023. "Mapping future offshore wind resources in the South China Sea under climate change by regional climate modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    14. Nik, Vahid M., 2016. "Making energy simulation easier for future climate – Synthesizing typical and extreme weather data sets out of regional climate models (RCMs)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 204-226.
    15. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    16. Ignacio Losada Carreño & Michael T. Craig & Michael Rossol & Moetasim Ashfaq & Fulden Batibeniz & Sue Ellen Haupt & Caroline Draxl & Bri-Mathias Hodge & Carlo Brancucci, 2020. "Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 745-766, November.
    17. Kumarasamy Palanimuthu & Ganesh Mayilsamy & Ameerkhan Abdul Basheer & Seong-Ryong Lee & Dongran Song & Young Hoon Joo, 2022. "A Review of Recent Aerodynamic Power Extraction Challenges in Coordinated Pitch, Yaw, and Torque Control of Large-Scale Wind Turbine Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-27, November.
    18. Lucy Cradden & Gareth Harrison & John Chick, 2012. "Will climate change impact on wind power development in the UK?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 837-852, December.
    19. Wimhurst, Joshua J. & Greene, J. Scott, 2019. "Oklahoma's future wind energy resources and their relationship with the Central Plains low-level jet," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:179:y:2021:i:c:p:427-444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.