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A projection of the expected wave power in the Black Sea until the end of the 21st century

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  • Rusu, Liliana

Abstract

The objective of the present work is to analyse until the end of the 21st century the dynamics of the wave power in the Black Sea in the context of climate changes. A wave modelling system was implemented for the entire basin of the Black Sea. The wind fields provided by a regional climate model for two emission scenarios are considered to force the wave model. Assuming both scenarios, wave simulations were carried out for the period 2071–2100 (distant future). Analyses of the wave power are performed over the entire basin and in eight reference points. The impact of climate change on the wave power in the Black Sea is estimated by performing comparisons with the previous results obtained for the near future (2021–2050) and historical (1976–2005) periods. The same wave modelling system and the wind data coming from the same regional climate model were considered in all periods. In this way, a comprehensive picture of the expected wave power dynamics in the basin of the Black Sea is provided. For the distant future, the changes in terms of the mean wave power are characterized by decreases for both scenarios.

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  • Rusu, Liliana, 2020. "A projection of the expected wave power in the Black Sea until the end of the 21st century," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 136-147.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:160:y:2020:i:c:p:136-147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.06.092
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    Cited by:

    1. Liliana Rusu & Eugen Rusu, 2021. "Evaluation of the Worldwide Wave Energy Distribution Based on ERA5 Data and Altimeter Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-16, January.
    2. deCastro, M. & Rusu, L. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2024. "Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. Kamranzad, Bahareh & Lin, Pengzhi & Iglesias, Gregorio, 2021. "Combining methodologies on the impact of inter and intra-annual variation of wave energy on selection of suitable location and technology," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 697-713.
    4. Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A.S. & Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2023. "Suitability of wave energy converters in northwestern Spain under the near future winter wave climate," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    5. Aydoğan, Burak & Görmüş, Tahsin & Ayat, Berna & Çarpar, Tunay, 2021. "Analysis of potential changes in the Black Sea wave power for the 21st century," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 512-526.
    6. Peter Nojarov, 2021. "Impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation, wind characteristics and wave in the western part of the Black Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 1073-1095, October.

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