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Assessing the Factors Impacting on the Reliability of Wind Turbines via Survival Analysis—A Case Study

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  • Samet Ozturk

    (Columbia University, 116th St & Broadway, New York, NY 10027, USA)

  • Vasilis Fthenakis

    (Columbia University, 116th St & Broadway, New York, NY 10027, USA)

  • Stefan Faulstich

    (Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology—IEE, Königstor 59, 34119 Kassel, Germany)

Abstract

The failure of wind turbines is a multi-faceted problem and its monetary impact is often unpredictable. In this study, we present a novel application of survival analysis on wind turbine reliability, including accounting for previous failures and the history of scheduled maintenance. We investigated the operational, climatic and geographical factors that affect wind turbine failure and modeled the risk rate of wind turbine failure based on data from 109 turbines in Germany operating for a period of 19 years. Our analysis showed that adequately scheduled maintenance can increase the survival of wind turbine systems and electric subsystems up to 2.8 and 3.8 times, respectively, compared to the systems without scheduled maintenance. Geared-drive wind turbines and their electrical systems were observed to have 1.2- and 1.4- times higher survival, respectively, compared to direct-drive turbines and their electrical systems. It was also found that the survival of frequently-failing wind turbine components, such as switches, was worse in geared-drive than in direct-drive wind turbines. We show that survival analysis is a useful tool to guide the reduction of the operating and maintenance costs of wind turbines.

Suggested Citation

  • Samet Ozturk & Vasilis Fthenakis & Stefan Faulstich, 2018. "Assessing the Factors Impacting on the Reliability of Wind Turbines via Survival Analysis—A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:11:p:3034-:d:180615
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Juan Izquierdo & Adolfo Crespo Márquez & Jone Uribetxebarria & Asier Erguido, 2019. "Framework for Managing Maintenance of Wind Farms Based on a Clustering Approach and Dynamic Opportunistic Maintenance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-17, May.
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    5. Jose R. Vargas-Jaramillo & Jhon A. Montanez-Barrera & Michael R. von Spakovsky & Lamine Mili & Sergio Cano-Andrade, 2019. "Effects of Producer and Transmission Reliability on the Sustainability Assessment of Power System Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, February.

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