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Emerging Countries and the Effects of the Trade War between US and China

Author

Listed:
  • Monique Carvalho

    (Economics Department, UNISINOS, São Leopoldo 91.330-002, Brazil)

  • André Azevedo

    (Economics Department, UNISINOS, São Leopoldo 91.330-002, Brazil)

  • Angélica Massuquetti

    (Economics Department, UNISINOS, São Leopoldo 91.330-002, Brazil)

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to examine the effects of the US–China trade war on both countries and some emerging economies. Two scenarios are examined, one where only US protectionist measures are considered, and another in which Chinese retaliation is taken into account, using the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) Computable General Equilibrium model. The results showed that, on one hand, the trade war would lead to a reduction in US trade deficit and an increase in domestic production of those sectors affected by higher import tariffs and Chinese producers and consumers would bear the lion’s share of the burden of the trade war. But, on the other hand, both countries and the world as a whole would lose in terms of welfare, due to the significant reduction in allocative efficiency, especially in the US, and the loss of terms of trade in the Chinese case. With the increase in protectionism between the two largest global economies, some important emerging countries, not directly involved in the trade war, would benefit by the shift in demand to sectors where they have comparative advantages.

Suggested Citation

  • Monique Carvalho & André Azevedo & Angélica Massuquetti, 2019. "Emerging Countries and the Effects of the Trade War between US and China," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-21, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:7:y:2019:i:2:p:45-:d:230784
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    6. Ozili, Peterson K, 2024. "Global Economic Consequences of Russian Invasion of Ukraine," MPRA Paper 120781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Li, Chunding & Whalley, John, 2021. "Trade protectionism and US manufacturing employment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 353-361.
    8. Deepika Krishnan & Vishal Dagar, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Stock Markets During Trade Conflicts in the USA, China, and India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 185-203, May.
    9. Shin, Sangho & Balistreri, Edward J., 2022. "The other trade war: Quantifying the Korea–Japan trade dispute," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Nugroho, Anda & Widyastutik, & Irawan, Tony & Amaliah, Syarifah, 2021. "Does the US–China trade war increase poverty in a developing country? A dynamic general equilibrium analysis for Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 279-290.
    11. Li, Minghao & Balistreri, Edward J. & Zhang, Wendong, 2020. "The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
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    13. Jungran Cho & Emma Kyoungseo Hong & Jeongho Yoo & Inkyo Cheong, 2020. "The Impact of Global Protectionism on Port Logistics Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, February.
    14. Nantembelele, Fatuma Abdallah & Yilmaz, Mustafa K. & Ari, Ali, 2023. "The effects of a US-China trade war on Sub-Saharan Africa: Pro-active domestic policies make the difference," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1296-1310.
    15. Wei Luo & Siyuan Kang & Sheng Hu & Lixian Su & Rui Dai, 2023. "Dual Effects of the US-China Trade War and COVID-19 on United States Imports: Transfer of China's industrial chain?," Papers 2309.02271, arXiv.org.
    16. Shouxin Bai & Shicheng Zhou & Yuyao Sheng & Xingwei Wang, 2022. "Does Lockdown Reduce Employment in Major Developing Countries? An Assessment Based on Multiregional Input–Output Model and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    17. Yanfang LYU & Linhui ZHAO & Dong WANG, 2023. "An Analysis of the Impact of US-China Trade Frictions on Chinese Manufacturing Industries from the Perspective of Trade Gains," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 43-56, December.
    18. Wang, Zhan & Hertel, Thomas W., 2024. "Soybean Trade between the United States, Brazil and China: Interactions between Global Trade Flow and Gridded Agricultural and Environmental impacts," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343755, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Paul Bogdan Zamfir, 2020. "The Clash Of Titans Or Us - China Trade Rivalry," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 109-114, February.
    20. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan, 2022. "The impact of trade policy on soybean futures in China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1152-1163, June.
    21. Ijaz Younis & Cheng Longsheng & Muhammad Farhan Basheer & Ahmed Shafique Joyo, 2020. "Stock market comovements among Asian emerging economies: A wavelet-based approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-23, October.
    22. Arunava Bandyopadhyay & Prabina Rajib, 2023. "The impact of Sino–US trade war on price discovery of soybean: A double‐edged sword?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 858-879, July.
    23. Ting-Ting Sun & Chi-Wei Su & Ran Tao & Meng Qin, 2021. "Are Agricultural Commodity Prices on a Conventional Wisdom with Inflation?," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.
    24. Shu-Ling Lin & Jun Lu, 2020. "Did Institutional Investors’ Behavior Affect U.S.-China Equity Market Sentiment? Evidence from the U.S.-China Trade Turbulence," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-17, June.

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