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Trade Protectionism and US Manufacturing Employment

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  • Chunding Li
  • Jing Wang
  • John Whalley

Abstract

This paper uses a numerical global general equilibrium model to simulate the possible effects of US initiated trade protection measures on US manufacturing employment. The simulation results show that US trade protection measures do not increase but will instead reduce manufacturing employment, and US losses will further increase if trade partners take retaliatory measures. The mechanism is that although the substitution effects between domestic and foreign goods have positive impacts, the substitution effects between manufacturing and service sectors and the retaliatory effects both have negative influences, therefore the whole effect is that the US will lose manufacturing employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Chunding Li & Jing Wang & John Whalley, 2019. "Trade Protectionism and US Manufacturing Employment," NBER Working Papers 25860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25860
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christian Dustmann, 2021. "Trade, Labor Markets, and the China Shock: What Can Be Learned from the German Experience?," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2112, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    3. Oshodi, Ayodele Folorunso & Kilishi, Abdulhakeem Abdullahi & Muhammed, Ismail Aremu, 2021. "The Nexus between Trade Policy and Manufacturing Employment in Nigeria: A Panel Cointegrating Regression," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(1), December.
    4. Munisamy Gopinath, 2021. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Agriculture?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 604-618, June.
    5. Shouxin Bai & Shicheng Zhou & Yuyao Sheng & Xingwei Wang, 2022. "Does Lockdown Reduce Employment in Major Developing Countries? An Assessment Based on Multiregional Input–Output Model and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Kreuter, Helena & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2023. "The impact of import tariffs on GDP and consumer welfare: A production network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan, 2022. "The impact of trade policy on soybean futures in China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1152-1163, June.
    8. Sanyal, Anirban, 2023. "Caught in the Crossfire: How Trade Policy Uncertainty Impacts Global Trade," EconStor Preprints 272825, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Jayamaha, D.K.J.S. & Lidula, N.W.A. & Rajapakse, A.D., 2020. "Protection and grounding methods in DC microgrids: Comprehensive review and analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Yue, Youfu & Hou, Junjun & Zhang, Meichen & Ye, Jiabai, 2024. "Does the sticky relationships of global value chains help stabilize employment? Evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 632-651.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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