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The Economy-Wide Impacts Of Climate Change And Irrigation Development In The Nile Basin: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

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  • TEWODROS NEGASH KAHSAY

    (Department of Environmental Economics, Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands†UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands)

  • ONNO KUIK

    (Department of Environmental Economics, Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • ROY BROUWER

    (#x2021;Department of Economics and The Water Institute, University of Waterloo, Canada)

  • PIETER VAN DER ZAAG

    (#x2020;UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands§Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands)

Abstract

A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to evaluate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under the IPCC’s A2 and B1 scenarios and existing irrigation development plans in the Nile basin. The study reveals that climate change adversely affects mainly downstream Egypt and to a lesser extent Sudan, while it results in a limited impact in the upstream countries Ethiopia and the Equatorial Lakes region, where irrigated agriculture is still limited. The economic consequences for Egypt are especially substantial if the river basin countries pursue a unilateral irrigation development strategy. In order to prevent water use conflicts and ease water scarcity conditions, a cooperative water development strategy is needed as well as economic diversification in favor of less water-intensive sectors, combined with investments in water-saving infrastructure and improved irrigation efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Tewodros Negash Kahsay & Onno Kuik & Roy Brouwer & Pieter Van Der Zaag, 2017. "The Economy-Wide Impacts Of Climate Change And Irrigation Development In The Nile Basin: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-30, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:08:y:2017:i:01:n:s201000781750004x
    DOI: 10.1142/S201000781750004X
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    2. Eamen, Leila & Brouwer, Roy & Razavi, Saman, 2020. "The economic impacts of water supply restrictions due to climate and policy change: A transboundary river basin supply-side input-output analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    3. Dario Aversa & Nino Adamashvili & Mariantonietta Fiore & Alessia Spada, 2022. "Scoping Review (SR) via Text Data Mining on Water Scarcity and Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

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