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Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War

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  • Chunding Li
  • Chuantian He
  • Chuangwei Lin

Abstract

This article uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China–US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China–US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Chunding Li & Chuantian He & Chuangwei Lin, 2018. "Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(7), pages 1557-1577, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:7:p:1557-1577
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1446131
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Chen, Zhonglu & Liang, Chao, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: New evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Haiou Mao & Holger Görg, 2020. "Friends like this: The impact of the US–China trade war on global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1776-1791, July.
    3. Chen, Yufeng & Zhang, Shun & Miao, Jiafeng, 2023. "The negative effects of the US-China trade war on innovation: Evidence from the Chinese ICT industry," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Chen, Juan & Ma, Feng & Qiu, Xuemei & Li, Tao, 2023. "The role of categorical EPU indices in predicting stock-market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 365-378.
    5. Monique Carvalho & André Azevedo & Angélica Massuquetti, 2019. "Emerging Countries and the Effects of the Trade War between US and China," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "Trade Policy Uncertainty Effects on Macro Economy and Financial Markets: An Integrated Survey and Empirical Investigation," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, January.
    7. Liu, Li-Jing & Creutzig, Felix & Yao, Yun-Fei & Wei, Yi-Ming & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2020. "Environmental and economic impacts of trade barriers: The example of China–US trade friction," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Li, Chunding & Whalley, John, 2021. "Trade protectionism and US manufacturing employment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 353-361.
    9. Abiad, Abdul & Baris, Kristina & Bertulfo, Donald Jay & Camingue-Romance, Shiela & Feliciano, Paul Neilmer & Mariasingham, Joseph & Mercer-Blackman , Valerie & Bernabe, John Arvin, 2018. "The Impact of Trade Conflict on Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 566, Asian Development Bank.
    10. Yu, Miao & Zhao, Xintong & Gao, Yuning, 2019. "Factor decomposition of China’s industrial electricity consumption using structural decomposition analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 67-76.
    11. Chen, Zhisong & Su, Shong-Iee Ivan, 2020. "International competition and trade conflict in a dual photovoltaic supply chain system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 816-828.
    12. Lee, Chien-Hui & Li, Shu-Hui & Lee, Jen-Yu, 2022. "An asymmetric impact analysis of the exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 399-415.
    13. Klein, Aaron, 2019. "Incorporating Macroprudential Financial Regulation into Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 1(4), pages 1-22, March.

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