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Modeling Behavioral Responses to COVID-19

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  • Ben R. Craig
  • Tom Phelan
  • Jan-Peter Siedlarek

Abstract

Many models have been developed to forecast the spread of the COVID-19 virus. We present one that is enhanced to allow individuals to alter their behavior in response to the virus. We show how adding this feature to the model both changes the resulting forecast and informs our understanding of the appropriate policy response. We find that when left to their own devices, individuals do curb their social activity in the face of risk, but not as much as a government planner would. The planner fully internalizes the effect of all individuals’ actions on others in society, while individuals do not. Further, our simulations suggest that government intervention may be particularly important in the middle and later stages of a pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben R. Craig & Tom Phelan & Jan-Peter Siedlarek, 2021. "Modeling Behavioral Responses to COVID-19," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(05), pages 1-6, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:90109
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Glenn Ellison, 2020. "Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fenichel, Eli P., 2013. "Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 440-451.
    3. Carol Y. Lin, 2008. "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 993-993, September.
    4. Ben R. Craig & Tom Phelan & Jan-Peter Siedlarek & Jared Steinberg, 2020. "Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(23), pages 1-8, September.
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