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Real exchange rate and import substitution episodes: Evidence from a developing economy

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  • Palazzo, Gabriel

Abstract

We investigate the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on the growth of import-substituting sectors using the quasi-natural experiment of Argentina’s large and lasting RER depreciation following the end of the Convertibility regime. To this end, we developed an episode detection algorithm to identify sectors with substantial import reductions from 2003 to 2008, while controlling for changes in aggregate income. Our analysis examines the theoretical transmission mechanisms through which the RER influences the performance of the tradable sector competing with imports. The results reveal three main findings: First, labor-intensive sectors showed a higher probability of occurrence of import substitution episodes during 2003–2008. This is in line with our expectations and the traditional trade theory, given that the RER should increase profitability in these kinds of sectors more. Second, we find that the higher level of the RER increases the probability of an import substitution episode when the sector shares a higher number of similar capabilities with sectors in which the country is already internationally competitive. Last, we find complementarities between the sectors with import substitution episodes and those that achieved the status of export surge episodes during the same period (2003–2008). In this sense, and in contrast to the traditional consensus view about import substitution policies, we do not observe any tension between developing sectors for the domestic market and the incentive to export growth when the level of the RER is used to promote growth and diversification in the tradable sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Palazzo, Gabriel, 2024. "Real exchange rate and import substitution episodes: Evidence from a developing economy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:184:y:2024:i:c:s0305750x24002225
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106752
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rates; Developing countries; Productive structure; Import substitution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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