IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lan/wpaper/583372.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Argentina''s imports elasticities

Author

Listed:
  • A Duarte
  • J L Nicolini-Llosa
  • I Paya

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide new estimates of the income and price elasticities of the demand for imports in Argentina. Given the non-stationary nature of the data and to avoid problems of spurious regression we applied co-integration techniques to quarterly data over the period 1970:1 -2005:4. Three results are worth mentioning. First, there is a statistically significant and stable long-run relationship between the level of imports, real income and the exchange rate. Second, in the long run, a very high-income elasticity and a low real exchange rate elasticity determine the demand for imports. This result confirms an old argument concerning Argentina's constraint to economic growth as originally developed by the well-known structural approach. Third, while the linear error correction models show problems of misspecification, a non-linear STAR model demonstrates that deviations from long-run equilibrium adjust not only in a non-linear way but also at a slower speed of adjustment than the linear one.

Suggested Citation

  • A Duarte & J L Nicolini-Llosa & I Paya, 2007. "Estimating Argentina''s imports elasticities," Working Papers 583372, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:583372
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/economics/working-papers/ArgentinaElasticities.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Timo Teräsvirta & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 2001. "Non-linear error correction and the UK demand for broad money, 1878-1993," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 277-288.
    4. Catao, Luis & Falcetti, Elisabetta, 2002. "Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, May.
    5. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    6. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    7. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    8. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
    9. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-484, November.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
    11. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    12. Gandolfo, Giancarlo & Petit, Maria Luisa, 1983. "The functional form of the aggregate import demand equation : Italy, 1960-1980," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 145-148.
    13. Gallagher, Liam A & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Risky Arbitrage, Limits of Arbitrage, and Nonlinear Adjustment in the Dividend-Price Ratio," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 524-536, October.
    14. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2006. "Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 279-303, April.
    15. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:lan:wpaper:2379 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:lan:wpaper:2381 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:lan:wpaper:2602 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:lan:wpaper:2460 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cointegration Analysis in the Non-Linear STAR Framework," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(12), pages 851-860.
    6. Sokbae Lee & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2017. "Correction," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 883-883, April.
    7. McMillan, David G., 2007. "Bubbles in the dividend-price ratio? Evidence from an asymmetric exponential smooth-transition model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 787-804, March.
    8. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2007. "On the relationship between nominal exchange rates and domestic and foreign prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-117.
    9. repec:lan:wpaper:2608 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Carone, Giuseppe, 1996. "Modeling the U.S. demand for imports through cointegration and error correction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-48, February.
    11. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2005. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in the parallel and official markets for foreign currency in Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 665-682, July.
    12. Ben Kaabia, Monia & Gil, Jose Maria, 2005. "Asymetric Price Transmission in the Spanish Lamb Sector," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24631, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Deborah Gefang, 2012. "Money‐output Causality Revisited – A Bayesian Logistic Smooth Transition VECM Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(1), pages 131-151, February.
    14. Fredj Jawadi & Georges Prat, 2012. "Arbitrage costs and nonlinear adjustment in the G7 stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(12), pages 1561-1582, April.
    15. repec:lan:wpaper:2385 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:lan:wpaper:2387 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:lan:wpaper:2466 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2009. "Nonlinear adjustment in US bond yields: An empirical model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 659-667, May.
    19. Mohamed, Hazik & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Stock market comovement among the ASEAN-5 : a causality analysis," MPRA Paper 98781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non‐Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783, September.
    21. Daiki Maki, 2008. "The Performance of Variance Ratio Unit Root Tests Under Nonlinear Stationary TAR and STAR Processes: Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations and Applications," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 77-94, February.
    22. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
    23. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    24. Kristensen, Dennis & Rahbek, Anders, 2010. "Likelihood-based inference for cointegration with nonlinear error-correction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 78-94, September.
    25. Alfred A. Haug & Pierre L. Siklos, 2002. "The Term Spread International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2002_08, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
    26. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2009. "Price discovery in Taiwan's foreign exchange market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 77-93, February.
    27. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2006. "Unit root tests in three-regime SETAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(2), pages 252-278, July.
    28. Phengpis, Chanwit, 2006. "Market efficiency and cointegration of spot exchange rates during periods of economic turmoil: Another look at European and Asian currency crises," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 323-342.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:583372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giorgio Motta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/delanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.