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A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks

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  • Nguyen, Son
  • Chen, Peggy Shu-Ling
  • Du, Yuquan
  • Shi, Wenming

Abstract

Uncertainty is a fundamental obstacle in container shipping operational risks (CSORs) evaluation and management. This study presents a model to quantitatively analyze CSORs with comprehensive uncertainty handling. The model features a Delphi risk communication platform (RCP) designed to establish a deliberative environment for expert interaction and cooperation. The risk level is assessed through a Bayesian network while a fuzzy-based system is implemented to evaluate the attached base of knowledge. Besides the validation of reliability and robustness by a sensitivity analysis, the conducted case study confirms the feasibility and functionality of the model, especially the impact of the implemented Delphi RCP.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Son & Chen, Peggy Shu-Ling & Du, Yuquan & Shi, Wenming, 2019. "A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 203-227.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:129:y:2019:i:c:p:203-227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2019.08.002
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