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Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Ramadan A. Rezk

    (Academy of Scientific Research & Technology)

  • Amr Radwan

    (Academy of Scientific Research & Technology)

  • Nahed M. Salem

    (Academy of Scientific Research & Technology)

  • Mahmoud M. Sakr

    (Academy of Scientific Research & Technology)

  • Manuela Tvaronavičienė

    (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University)

Abstract

This paper presents energy opportunities, particular areas of high potential and reflections on energy challenges in Egypt by the year 2040. Energy foresight significantly contributes in the effective review and formulation of national energy policies and strategies. In this work, 350 experts participated in real-time Delphi survey and responded to a set of structured and cross-linked questionnaires that aim to assess and provide future dimension to the energy sector in Egypt. Priorities are presented across 14 energy cluster-areas with 180 identified topics. The two-round Delphi study with an iterative process was performed to determine and measure the expectations of the different stakeholders with specific emphasis on the prospects of renewable energy and energy efficiency. The designed cross-linkages between survey components allowed the systematic pooling and convergence of knowledge in addition to the technical insights and different perspectives. About 50% of Egypt's energy demand was foresighted to be met by renewable energies around 2030. The results showed that all types of energy would not only provide economic and environmental benefits but also improve living standards. This work demonstrates that involving large diversity of expertise and different stakeholders, comprising heterogeneous groups, in foresight studies would potentiate the forecasting power, reduce the polarization effect, and enhance the reliability of the foresight exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Ramadan A. Rezk & Amr Radwan & Nahed M. Salem & Mahmoud M. Sakr & Manuela Tvaronavičienė, 2019. "Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey," Post-Print hal-02342723, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02342723
    DOI: 10.9770/ird.2019.1.4(6)
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02342723
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shouman, Enas R., 2017. "International and national renewable energy for electricity with optimal cost effective for electricity in Egypt," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 916-923.
    2. Nguyen, Son & Chen, Peggy Shu-Ling & Du, Yuquan & Shi, Wenming, 2019. "A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 203-227.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Olga Yurievna Voronkova & Margarita V. Melnik & Yulia V. Nikitochkina & Nadezhda M. Tchuykova & Alla A. Davidyants & Svetlana V. Titova, 2020. "Corporate social responsibility of business as a factor of regional development," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(3), pages 2170-2180, March.
    3. Alexsandr Tyo & Baldyrgan Jazykbayeva & Tatyana Ten & Galina Kogay & Bakhyt Spanova, 2019. "Development tendencies of heat and energy resources: evidence of Kazakhstan," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(2), pages 1514-1524, December.
    4. Marcin Rabe & Dalia Streimikiene & Yuriy Bilan, 2020. "Model of Optimization of Wind Energy Production in the Light of Legal Changes in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Oleg V. Zakharchenko & Olena O. Alieksieichuk & Alena V. Kliuchnyk & Alena V. Kliuchnyk & Nataliya Yu. Shyriaieva & Іrina V. Kudlai, 2020. "State support of agricultural producers as a factor in increasing the competitiveness of the agricultural sector," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(1), pages 687-704, September.
    6. Marcin Rabe & Dalia Streimikiene & Wojciech Drożdż & Yuriy Bilan & Rafal Kasperowicz, 2020. "Sustainable regional energy planning: The case of hydro," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 1652-1662, November.
    7. Alexander Melnik & Kirill Ermolaev, 2020. "Strategy Context of Decision Making for Improved Energy Efficiency in Industrial Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-28, March.

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    Keywords

    science policy; foresight; Delphi survey; energy; sustainable development; renewable energy;
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