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The risk concept—historical and recent development trends

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  • Aven, Terje

Abstract

This paper reviews the definition and meaning of the concept of risk. The review has a historical and development trend perspective, also covering recent years. It is questioned if, and to what extent, it is possible to identify some underlying patterns in the way risk has been, and is being understood today. The analysis is based on a new categorisation of risk definitions and an assessment of these categories in relation to a set of critical issues, including how these risk definitions match typical daily-life phrases about risk. The paper presents a set of constructed development paths for the risk concept and concludes that over the last 15–20 years we have seen a shift from rather narrow perspectives based on probabilities to ways of thinking which highlight events, consequences and uncertainties. However, some of the more narrow perspectives (like expected values and probability-based perspectives) are still strongly influencing the risk field, although arguments can be provided against their use. The implications of this situation for risk assessment and risk management are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Aven, Terje, 2012. "The risk concept—historical and recent development trends," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 33-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:99:y:2012:i:c:p:33-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.11.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2009. "On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, January.
    2. LeRoy, Stephen F & Singell, Larry D, Jr, 1987. "Knight on Risk and Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(2), pages 394-406, April.
    3. Dubois, Didier, 2006. "Possibility theory and statistical reasoning," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 47-69, November.
    4. Runde, Jochen, 1998. "Clarifying Frank Knight's Discussion of the Meaning of Risk and Uncertainty," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 22(5), pages 539-546, September.
    5. Ray, P.K., 1961. "Principles and Practices of Agricultural Insurance," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 16(2), pages 1-2.
    6. Aven, Terje, 2011. "On the new ISO guide on risk management terminology," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(7), pages 719-726.
    7. Henrik Merkelsen, 2011. "The constitutive element of probabilistic agency in risk: a semantic analysis of risk, danger, chance, and hazard," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 881-897, August.
    8. Eugene A. Rosa, 1998. "Metatheoretical foundations for post-normal risk," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 15-44, January.
    9. Langlois, Richard N & Cosgel, Metin M, 1993. "Frank Knight on Risk, Uncertainty, and the Firm: A New Interpretation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(3), pages 456-465, July.
    10. Taylor, C. Robert, 2003. "The role of risk versus the role of uncertainty in economic systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 251-264.
    11. Eyvind Aven & Terje Aven, 2011. "On how to understand and express enterprise risk," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1), pages 20-34.
    12. Aven, Terje, 2010. "On how to define, understand and describe risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(6), pages 623-631.
    13. Aven, Terje, 2011. "Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(5), pages 509-514.
    14. Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2011. "Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 64-74.
    15. Aven, Terje, 2007. "A unified framework for risk and vulnerability analysis covering both safety and security," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(6), pages 745-754.
    16. Bo Bergman, 2009. "Conceptualistic Pragmatism: A framework for Bayesian analysis?," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 86-93.
    17. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2010. "Risk Management and Governance," Risk, Governance and Society, Springer, number 978-3-642-13926-0, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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