IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v41y2007i2p202-217.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimizing capacity utilization of stations by estimating knock-on train delays

Author

Listed:
  • Yuan, Jianxin
  • Hansen, Ingo A.

Abstract

For scheduled train services, a trade-off exists between efficiently utilizing the capacity of railway networks and improving the reliability and punctuality of train operations. This paper proposes a new analytical stochastic model of train delay propagation in stations, which estimates the knock-on delays of trains caused by route conflicts and late transfer connections realistically. The proposed model reflects the constraints of signalling system and train protection operations rules. The stochastic variations of track occupancy times due to the fluctuations of train speed in case of different signal aspects are modelled with conditional probability distributions. The model is solved on the basis of a numerical approximation of the Stieltjes convolution of individual independent distributions and can be integrated into a larger computerized decision support tool for timetable design and train dispatching. Having been validated successfully with empirical data, the model is applied for optimizing the station capacity utilization in a case study of the Dutch railway station The Hague Holland Spoor. The model can determine the maximal frequency of trains passing the critical level crossing with a given maximum knock-on delay at a certain confidence level. It is found that when the scheduled buffer time between train paths at the level crossing decreases, the mean knock-on delay of all passing trains increases exponentially.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan, Jianxin & Hansen, Ingo A., 2007. "Optimizing capacity utilization of stations by estimating knock-on train delays," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 202-217, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:41:y:2007:i:2:p:202-217
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191-2615(06)00021-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huisman, Tijs & Boucherie, Richard J. & van Dijk, Nico M., 2002. "A solvable queueing network model for railway networks and its validation and applications for the Netherlands," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 30-51, October.
    2. Carey, Malachy, 1994. "Reliability of interconnected scheduled services," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 51-72, November.
    3. Carey, Malachy & Kwiecinski, Andrzej, 1994. "Stochastic approximation to the effects of headways on knock-on delays of trains," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 251-267, August.
    4. Carey, Malachy & Carville, Sinead, 2003. "Scheduling and platforming trains at busy complex stations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 195-224, March.
    5. Carey, Malachy & Kwiecinski, Andrzej, 1995. "Properties of expected costs and performance measures in stochastic models of scheduled transport," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 182-199, May.
    6. Carey, Malachy, 1998. "Optimizing scheduled times, allowing for behavioural response," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 329-342, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Spanninger & Beda Büchel & Francesco Corman, 2023. "Train Delay Predictions Using Markov Chains Based on Process Time Deviations and Elastic State Boundaries," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Flurin S. Hänseler & Nicholas A. Molyneaux & Michel Bierlaire, 2017. "Estimation of Pedestrian Origin-Destination Demand in Train Stations," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 981-997, August.
    3. Kevin Lebrun & Frédéric Dobruszkes, 2012. "New RER stations for Brussels? Challenges, methods and constraints," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/128508, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Jovanović, Predrag & Pavlović, Norbert & Belošević, Ivan & Milinković, Sanjin, 2020. "Graph coloring-based approach for railway station design analysis and capacity determination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 348-360.
    5. Chao Wen & Weiwei Mou & Ping Huang & Zhongcan Li, 2020. "A predictive model of train delays on a railway line," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 470-488, April.
    6. Leachman, Robert C. & Jula, Payman, 2012. "Estimating flow times for containerized imports from Asia to the United States through the Western rail network," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 296-309.
    7. Nikola Bešinović & Rob M. P. Goverde, 2019. "Stable and robust train routing in station areas with balanced infrastructure capacity occupation," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 211-236, August.
    8. Shen, Yi & Yang, Huang & Ren, Gang & Ran, Bin, 2024. "Model cascading overload failure and dynamic vulnerability analysis of facility network of metro station," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    9. Mu, Shi & Dessouky, Maged, 2013. "Efficient dispatching rules on double tracks with heterogeneous train traffic," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 45-64.
    10. Jens Parbo & Otto Anker Nielsen & Carlo Giacomo Prato, 2016. "Passenger Perspectives in Railway Timetabling: A Literature Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 500-526, July.
    11. Agbelie, Bismark & Libnao, Kathleen, 2018. "Unobserved heterogeneity analysis of rail transit incident delays," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 39-43.
    12. Gert Janssenswillen & Benoît Depaire & Sabine Verboven, 2018. "Detecting train reroutings with process mining," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
    13. Lu Yang & Leishan Zhou & Hanxiao Zhou & Chang Han & Wenqiang Zhao, 2023. "A Lagrangian Method for Calculation of Passing Capacity on a Railway Hub Station," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-20, March.
    14. Huang, Ping & Wen, Chao & Fu, Liping & Lessan, Javad & Jiang, Chaozhe & Peng, Qiyuan & Xu, Xinyue, 2020. "Modeling train operation as sequences: A study of delay prediction with operation and weather data," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Ingo Hansen, 2009. "Introduction," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5, March.
    16. Harshad Khadilkar, 2017. "Data-Enabled Stochastic Modeling for Evaluating Schedule Robustness of Railway Networks," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 1161-1176, November.
    17. Tiong, Kah Yong & Ma, Zhenliang & Palmqvist, Carl-William, 2023. "Analyzing factors contributing to real-time train arrival delays using seemingly unrelated regression models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    18. Jovanović, Predrag & Kecman, Pavle & Bojović, Nebojša & Mandić, Dragomir, 2017. "Optimal allocation of buffer times to increase train schedule robustness," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 44-54.
    19. Franciszek Restel & Łukasz Wolniewicz & Matea Mikulčić, 2021. "Method for Designing Robust and Energy Efficient Railway Schedules," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Huang, Ping & Guo, Jingwei & Liu, Shu & Corman, Francesco, 2024. "Explainable train delay propagation: A graph attention network approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    21. Krüger, Niclas A. & Vierth , Inge & Fakhraei Roudsari, Farzad, 2013. "Spatial, temporal and size distribution of freight train delays: evidence from Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:8, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    22. Zhengwen Liao & Ce Mu, 2023. "Assessing the Compatibility of Railway Station Layouts and Mixed Heterogeneous Traffic Patterns by Optimization-Based Capacity Estimation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-29, August.
    23. Bernal, Margarita & Welch, Eric W. & Sriraj, P.S., 2016. "The effect of slow zones on ridership: An analysis of the Chicago Transit Authority “El” Blue Line," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 11-21.
    24. Bhatia, Vinod & Sharma, Seema, 2021. "Expense based performance analysis and resource rationalization: Case of Indian Railways," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vromans, Michiel J.C.M. & Dekker, Rommert & Kroon, Leo G., 2006. "Reliability and heterogeneity of railway services," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 647-665, July.
    2. Dennis Huisman & Leo G. Kroon & Ramon M. Lentink & Michiel J. C. M. Vromans, 2005. "Operations Research in passenger railway transportation," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 59(4), pages 467-497, November.
    3. Carey, Malachy, 1999. "Ex ante heuristic measures of schedule reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 473-494, September.
    4. Chow, Andy H.F. & Pavlides, Aris, 2018. "Cost functions and multi-objective timetabling of mixed train services," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 335-356.
    5. Wu, Cheng-Lung & Caves, Robert E., 2002. "Towards the optimisation of the schedule reliability of aircraft rotations," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(6), pages 419-426.
    6. Wang, Shuaian & Meng, Qiang, 2012. "Liner ship route schedule design with sea contingency time and port time uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 615-633.
    7. Rietveld, P. & Bruinsma, F. R. & van Vuuren, D. J., 2001. "Coping with unreliability in public transport chains: A case study for Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 539-559, July.
    8. Meng, Lingyun & Zhou, Xuesong, 2011. "Robust single-track train dispatching model under a dynamic and stochastic environment: A scenario-based rolling horizon solution approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1080-1102, August.
    9. Wanqi Wang & Yun Bao & Sihui Long, 2022. "Rescheduling Urban Rail Transit Trains to Serve Passengers from Uncertain Delayed High-Speed Railway Trains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Meester, Ludolf E. & Muns, Sander, 2007. "Stochastic delay propagation in railway networks and phase-type distributions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 218-230, February.
    11. Rietveld, P. & Bruinsma, F.R. & Vuuren, D.J. van, 1999. "Coping with unreliability in public transport chains," Serie Research Memoranda 0031, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    12. Francesco Rotoli & Elena Navajas Cawood & Antonio Soria, 2016. "Capacity assessment of railway infrastructure: Tools, methodologies and policy relevance in the EU context," JRC Research Reports JRC100509, Joint Research Centre.
    13. Jiamin Zhao & Maged Dessouky & Satish Bukkapatnam, 2006. "Optimal Slack Time for Schedule-Based Transit Operations," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 529-539, November.
    14. Leachman, Robert C. & Jula, Payman, 2012. "Estimating flow times for containerized imports from Asia to the United States through the Western rail network," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 296-309.
    15. Carey, Malachy & Kwiecinski, Andrzej, 1995. "Properties of expected costs and performance measures in stochastic models of scheduled transport," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 182-199, May.
    16. Andrea D'Ariano & Francesco Corman & Dario Pacciarelli & Marco Pranzo, 2008. "Reordering and Local Rerouting Strategies to Manage Train Traffic in Real Time," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(4), pages 405-419, November.
    17. Jingliu Xu & Zhimei Wang & Shangjun Yao & Jiarong Xue, 2022. "Train Operations Organization in High-Speed Railway Station Considering Variable Configuration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.
    18. Amitrajeet Batabyal, 2007. "A probabilistic analysis of a scheduling problem in the economics of tourism," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 12(4), pages 1-7.
    19. Richard Lusby & Jesper Larsen & David Ryan & Matthias Ehrgott, 2011. "Routing Trains Through Railway Junctions: A New Set-Packing Approach," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 228-245, May.
    20. Carlo Mannino & Alessandro Mascis, 2009. "Optimal Real-Time Traffic Control in Metro Stations," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(4), pages 1026-1039, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:41:y:2007:i:2:p:202-217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.