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A predictive model of train delays on a railway line

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  • Chao Wen
  • Weiwei Mou
  • Ping Huang
  • Zhongcan Li

Abstract

Delay prediction is an important issue associated with train timetabling and dispatching. Based on real‐world operation records, accurate forecasting of delays is of immense significance in train operation and decisions of dispatchers. In this study, we established a model that illustrates the interaction between train delays and their affecting factors via train describer records on a Dutch railway line. Based on the main factors that affect train delay and the time series trend, we determined the independent and dependent variables. A long short‐term memory (LSTM) prediction model in which the actual delay time corresponded to the dependent variable was established via Python. Finally, the prediction accuracy of the random forest model and artificial neural network model was compared. The results indicated that the LSTM model outperformed the other two models.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Wen & Weiwei Mou & Ping Huang & Zhongcan Li, 2020. "A predictive model of train delays on a railway line," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 470-488, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:39:y:2020:i:3:p:470-488
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2639
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sobrie, Léon & Verschelde, Marijn & Hennebel, Veerle & Roets, Bart, 2023. "Capturing complexity over space and time via deep learning: An application to real-time delay prediction in railways," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1201-1217.
    2. Tiong, Kah Yong & Ma, Zhenliang & Palmqvist, Carl-William, 2023. "Analyzing factors contributing to real-time train arrival delays using seemingly unrelated regression models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Luo, Jie & Wen, Chao & Peng, Qiyuan & Qin, Yong & Huang, Ping, 2023. "Forecasting the effect of traffic control strategies in railway systems: A hybrid machine learning method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 621(C).

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