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A novel policy making aid model for the development of LNG fuelled ships

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  • Wan, Chengpeng
  • Yan, Xinping
  • Zhang, Di
  • Yang, Zaili

Abstract

In recent years, increasingly strict restrictions on ship emissions and continuously increasing prices of marine fuel oil have made the liquefied natural gas (LNG) using as a marine fuel more attractive, and LNG fuelled ships have therefore become more popular in many countries. However, there is still not much research on the development level of LNG fuelled ships in different countries, and no unified or corresponding evaluation criteria has been established to support relevant policy making, revealing a significant research gap to be fulfilled. In view of this, taking the advantages of the PEST (Political, Economic, Social and Technological factors) and the SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis, this paper proposes a novel SRETI (Strategy, Regulation, Economics, Technology and Infrastructure) model for evaluating the development level of LNG fuelled ships in a particular region or country for self-assessment or comparative studies. The kernel of the model consists of the combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evidential reasoning (ER) approach, thus being able to deal with evaluation data of both quantitative and qualitative features. China, Norway and the United States of America (USA) are selected in a real case study to demonstrate the feasibility of the model on the evaluation of the development of their LNG fuelled ships. The findings show that Norway is better than USA and China in terms of the development level of LNG fuelled ships. It is also revealed that the proposed SRETI model is capable of addressing uncertainties in subjective data provided by domain experts. A sensitive analysis is conducted as well to test the robustness of the SRETI model, and the results are in harmony with the axioms and hypotheses. This work provides policymakers with powerful insights into the development of LNG fuelled ships. It can also be tailored to evaluate the development of emerging technologies in other sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Wan, Chengpeng & Yan, Xinping & Zhang, Di & Yang, Zaili, 2019. "A novel policy making aid model for the development of LNG fuelled ships," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 29-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:119:y:2019:i:c:p:29-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.10.038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Wang, Xinjian & Xia, Guoqing & Zhao, Jian & Wang, Jin & Yang, Zaili & Loughney, Sean & Fang, Siming & Zhang, Shukai & Xing, Yongheng & Liu, Zhengjiang, 2023. "A novel method for the risk assessment of human evacuation from cruise ships in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    4. Verger, Thibault & Azimov, Ulugbek & Adeniyi, Oladapo, 2022. "Biomass-based fuel blends as an alternative for the future heavy-duty transport: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    5. Perčić, Maja & Vladimir, Nikola & Fan, Ailong, 2021. "Techno-economic assessment of alternative marine fuels for inland shipping in Croatia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Yang, Zhisen & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zaili & Wan, Chengpeng, 2024. "A data-driven Bayesian model for evaluating the duration of detention of ships in PSC inspections," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    7. Ivan Smajla & Daria Karasalihović Sedlar & Branko Drljača & Lucija Jukić, 2019. "Fuel Switch to LNG in Heavy Truck Traffic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Yang, Zhisen & Wan, Chengpeng & Yu, Qing & Yin, Jingbo & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "A machine learning-based Bayesian model for predicting the duration of ship detention in PSC inspection," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    9. Yu Yong Ung & Park Sung Ho & Jung Dong Ho & Lee Chang Hee, 2020. "Improving Liquefied Natural Gas Bunkering in Korea through the Chinese and Japanese Experiences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-15, November.
    10. Wang, Junqi & Cao, Hongjun, 2022. "Improving competitive strategic decisions of Chinese coal companies toward green transformation: A hybrid multi-criteria decision-making model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Gi-Young Chae & Seung-Hyun An & Chul-Yong Lee, 2021. "Demand Forecasting for Liquified Natural Gas Bunkering by Country and Region Using Meta-Analysis and Artificial Intelligence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-18, August.
    12. Perčić, Maja & Vladimir, Nikola & Fan, Ailong, 2020. "Life-cycle cost assessment of alternative marine fuels to reduce the carbon footprint in short-sea shipping: A case study of Croatia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    13. Wang, Shuaian & Qi, Jingwen & Laporte, Gilbert, 2022. "Governmental subsidy plan modeling and optimization for liquefied natural gas as fuel for maritime transportation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 304-321.

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