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Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference

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  • Schwarz, Jan Oliver
  • Kroehl, Rixa
  • von der Gracht, Heiko A.

Abstract

Science fiction (SF) prototyping uses fictional stories about the future to investigate the implications of science and technology not yet feasible at present. Since such a setting enhances creativity and perception, it has been identified as a means to develop new products, services, and business models. Novelty starts with weak signals of change within an environment and leads to innovations. From a constructivist perspective, in which knowledge needs to be processed or “constructed”, weak signals of change are not perceived by the outside environment. Rather, they have to be conceptualized in a cognitive process. We use this theoretical perspective to illustrate the value of novels in identifying and cognitively conceptualizing weak signals. With the support of sense-making theory, we illustrate how novels contribute to comprehending novelty in two frames of reference: by broadening the perspective, enhancing the creativity, and increasing the sensitivity of managers/corporate decision makers to detect weak signals; and by ensuring that the customer comprehends the link of an SF prototype to a future product or service. Our theoretical considerations are illustrated by an example from the novel, Super Sad True Love Story, in which the SF prototype is part of a broader fictional story.

Suggested Citation

  • Schwarz, Jan Oliver & Kroehl, Rixa & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:84:y:2014:i:c:p:66-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Schwarz, Jan Oliver, 2015. "The ‘Narrative Turn’ in developing foresight: Assessing how cultural products can assist organisations in detecting trends," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 510-513.
    3. Eller, Eric & Hofmann, Rupert & Schwarz, Jan Oliver, 2020. "The Customer Foresight Territory," Marketing Review St.Gallen, Universität St.Gallen, Institut für Marketing und Customer Insight, vol. 37(3), pages 12-19.
    4. Bourmistrov, Anatoli & Åmo, Bjørn Willy, 2022. "Creativity, proactivity, and foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Dufva, Mikko & Ahlqvist, Toni, 2015. "Knowledge creation dynamics in foresight: A knowledge typology and exploratory method to analyse foresight workshops," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-268.
    6. Barbara L. van Veen & J. Roland Ortt, 2024. "Simplification errors in predictive models," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), September.
    7. Marozzo, Veronica & Crupi, Antonio & Abbate, Tindara & Cesaroni, Fabrizio & Corvello, Vincenzo, 2024. "The impact of watching science fiction on the creativity of individuals: The role of STEM background," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Pier Luigi Sacco, 2020. "‘There are more things in heaven and earth…’ A ‘narrative turn’ in economics?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 44(1), pages 173-183, March.

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