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Economy-wide impacts of road transport electrification in the EU

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  • Tamba, Marie
  • Krause, Jette
  • Weitzel, Matthias
  • Ioan, Raileanu
  • Duboz, Louison
  • Grosso, Monica
  • Vandyck, Toon

Abstract

While electrification of road transport is a key component of decarbonisation, the implications for the broader economy and related jobs remain underexplored. We quantify these impacts in the EU in a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, combining techno-economic assumptions about electric vehicles with deployment scenarios derived by energy models. We augment input-output tables underlying the JRC-GEM-E3 model with an explicit representation of vehicle manufacturing and upgrade the modelling of vehicle purchase and operation. Our findings illustrate that greater road transport electrification reduces the overall costs of climate mitigation, primarily driven by lower fuel costs for electric vehicles and a faster decline of battery costs. Transport electrification alters supply-chains and leads to structural shifts in employment from traditional vehicle manufacturing towards battery production, electricity supply and related investments. Finally, we expand the set of labour market indicators to cover skills and occupations, to refine the socio-economic assessments of climate policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamba, Marie & Krause, Jette & Weitzel, Matthias & Ioan, Raileanu & Duboz, Louison & Grosso, Monica & Vandyck, Toon, 2022. "Economy-wide impacts of road transport electrification in the EU," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:182:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522003274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121803
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    Cited by:

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    2. Koasidis, Konstantinos & Nikas, Alexandros & Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan & Xexakis, Georgios & Forouli, Aikaterini & Mittal, Shivika & Gambhir, Ajay & Koutsellis, Themistoklis & Doukas, Haris, 2022. "Towards a green recovery in the EU: Aligning further emissions reductions with short- and long-term energy-sector employment gains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Marta Raźniewska & Anna Wronka, 2024. "Transport Fleet Electrification Development Conditions—Perspective of Transport, Shipping, and Logistics Industry in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Nieto, Jaime & Brockway, Paul E. & Sakai, Marco & Barrett, John, 2024. "Assessing the energy and socio-macroeconomic impacts of the EV transition: A UK case study 2020–2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).
    5. Jürgen K. Wilke & Ferdinand Schöpp & Regina Linke & Laurenz Bremer & Maya Ada Scheyltjens & Niki Buggenhout & Eva Kassens-Noor, 2024. "Availability of an Overhead Contact Line System for the Electrification of Road Freight Transport," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-14, July.

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