IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v150y2020ics0040162519310042.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Synthesizing scenario planning and industry recipes through an analysis of the Hollywood film industry

Author

Listed:
  • Bezjian, James
  • Stoyanova, Veselina
  • McKiernan, Peter
  • MacKay, R. Bradley

Abstract

This paper creates a theoretical construct through the synthetization of industry recipes in the Hollywood film industry and scenario planning's intuitive logics approach. It illustrates how the incumbent-challenger paradox coupled with the industry recipes framework can provide a robust scenario narrative. Through a multiple case study approach, an industry recipe is constructed, the industry recipe factors are identified. Then the intuitive logics approach is blended with the industry recipe factors through the creation of scenario recipe factors and represented in a theoretical framework. The underlying premise of the paper purports that exploration of the industry recipes framework can help advance the intuitive logics approach through narrative development.

Suggested Citation

  • Bezjian, James & Stoyanova, Veselina & McKiernan, Peter & MacKay, R. Bradley, 2020. "Synthesizing scenario planning and industry recipes through an analysis of the Hollywood film industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:150:y:2020:i:c:s0040162519310042
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119777
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162519310042
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119777?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael A. Hitt & Beverly B. Tyler, 1991. "Strategic decision models: Integrating different perspectives," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 327-351, July.
    2. Demetrios Vakratsas & Zhenfeng Ma, 2009. "Firm adaptiveness and performance heterogeneity: the case of sales–advertising dynamics in an evolving product market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-40, February.
    3. Charles Baden-Fuller & Vincent Mangematin, 2013. "Business models: A challenging agenda," Grenoble Ecole de Management (Post-Print) hal-00869707, HAL.
    4. Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.
    5. MacKay, R. Bradley & Stoyanova, Veselina, 2017. "Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 88-100.
    6. Pereverza, Kateryna & Pasichnyi, Oleksii & Lazarevic, David & Kordas, Olga, 2017. "Strategic planning for sustainable heating in cities: A morphological method for scenario development and selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(P2), pages 115-125.
    7. Wendt, Alexander E., 1987. "The agent-structure problem in international relations theory," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 335-370, July.
    8. Sarpong, David & Maclean, Mairi & Davies, Clayton, 2013. "A matter of foresight: How practices enable (or impede) organizational foresightfulness," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 613-625.
    9. Wright, George & Bradfield, Ron & Cairns, George, 2013. "Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 631-642.
    10. Ramírez, Rafael & Österman, Riku & Grönquist, Daniel, 2013. "Scenarios and early warnings as dynamic capabilities to frame managerial attention," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 825-838.
    11. Torben Juul Andersen, 2004. "Integrating Decentralized Strategy Making and Strategic Planning Processes in Dynamic Environments," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(8), pages 1271-1299, December.
    12. Margaret E. Phillips, 1994. "Industry Mindsets: Exploring the Cultures of Two Macro-Organizational Settings," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(3), pages 384-402, August.
    13. Ansari, Shahzad (Shaz) & Krop, Pieter, 2012. "Incumbent performance in the face of a radical innovation: Towards a framework for incumbent challenger dynamics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1357-1374.
    14. Jennifer Rowley, 2012. "Conducting research interviews," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(3/4), pages 260-271, March.
    15. Ming-Jer Chen & Danny Miller, 2015. "Reconceptualizing competitive dynamics: A multidimensional framework," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 758-775, May.
    16. Hadida, Allègre L. & Paris, Thomas, 2014. "Managerial cognition and the value chain in the digital music industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 84-97.
    17. Andrew M. Pettigrew, 1990. "Longitudinal Field Research on Change: Theory and Practice," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 267-292, August.
    18. David G. Sirmon & Michael A. Hitt, 2009. "Contingencies within dynamic managerial capabilities: interdependent effects of resource investment and deployment on firm performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(13), pages 1375-1394, December.
    19. Ricard Gil, 2010. "An empirical investigation of the Paramount antitrust case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 171-183.
    20. Sinéad Monaghan & Esther Tippmann, 2018. "Becoming a multinational enterprise: Using industry recipes to achieve rapid multinationalization," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(4), pages 473-495, May.
    21. Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2017. "Disruptive innovation, managerial cognition, and technology competition outcomes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 116-128.
    22. Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 77-87.
    23. Mark Lorenzen, 2007. "Internationalization vs. Globalization of the Film Industry," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 349-357.
    24. MacKay, Brad & Tambeau, Paul, 2013. "A structuration approach to scenario praxis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 673-686.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Perano, Mirko & Casali, Gian Luca & Liu, Yulin & Abbate, Tindara, 2021. "Professional reviews as service: A mix method approach to assess the value of recommender systems in the entertainment industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    2. Kishita, Yusuke & Mizuno, Yuji & Fukushige, Shinichi & Umeda, Yasushi, 2020. "Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
    5. Tapinos, E. & Pyper, N., 2018. "Forward looking analysis: Investigating how individuals ‘do’ foresight and make sense of the future," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 292-302.
    6. Ramirez, R. & Bhatti, Y. & Tapinos, E., 2020. "Exploring how experience and learning curves decrease the time invested in scenario planning interventions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
    8. Rowe, Emily & Wright, George & Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important ‘weak signals’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 224-235.
    9. Giulia Parola, 2020. "Escape from parents? basement? Post COVID-19 scenarios for the future of youth employment in Italy," QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2020(111), pages 51-71.
    10. Wayland, Rebecca, 2019. "Three senses of paradigm in scenario methodology: A preliminary framework and systematic approach for using intuitive logics scenarios to change mental models and improve strategic decision-making in ," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 504-516.
    11. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
    12. Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.
    13. MacKay, R. Bradley & Stoyanova, Veselina, 2017. "Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 88-100.
    14. Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 77-87.
    15. Li Dai & Lorraine Eden & Paul W. Beamish, 2017. "Caught in the crossfire: Dimensions of vulnerability and foreign multinationals' exit from war-afflicted countries," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(7), pages 1478-1498, July.
    16. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
    17. Chen, Kaihua & Ren, Zhipeng & Mu, Shijun & Sun, Tara Qian & Mu, Rongping, 2020. "Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. Phadnis, Shardul & Caplice, Chris & Singh, Mahender & Sheffi, Yossi, 2014. "Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 122-139.
    19. van den Oever, Koen, 2017. "Uncharted waters : A behavioral approach to when, why and which organizational changes are adopted," Other publications TiSEM 0136c8c2-ecdd-4f82-8ca7-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Rodolphe Durand & Robert M. Grant & Tammy L. Madsen & Eric Yanfei Zhao & Greg Fisher & Michael Lounsbury & Danny Miller, 2017. "Optimal distinctiveness: Broadening the interface between institutional theory and strategic management," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 93-113, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:150:y:2020:i:c:s0040162519310042. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.