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Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams

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  • Lehr, Thomas
  • Lorenz, Ullrich
  • Willert, Markus
  • Rohrbeck, René

Abstract

For over 40years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain environments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawing on behavioural strategy as a theoretical lens, we design a yardstick to study the impact of scenario-based strategizing. We then describe our approach, which includes developing scenarios and alternative strategies separately and supporting the strategy selection through an integrated assessment of the goal-based efficacy and robustness. To facilitate the collaborative strategizing in teams, we propose a matrix with robustness and efficacy as the two axes, which we call the Parmenides Matrix. We assess the impact of the novel approach by applying it in two cases, at a governmental agency (German Environmental Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions).

Suggested Citation

  • Lehr, Thomas & Lorenz, Ullrich & Willert, Markus & Rohrbeck, René, 2017. "Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 214-224.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:124:y:2017:i:c:p:214-224
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.06.026
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    3. Jan Oliver Schwarz & René Rohrbeck & Bernhard Wach, 2020. "Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), June.
    4. Gordon, Adam Vigdor & Ramic, Mirza & Rohrbeck, René & Spaniol, Matthew J., 2020. "50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Culot, Giovanna & Orzes, Guido & Sartor, Marco & Nassimbeni, Guido, 2020. "The future of manufacturing: A Delphi-based scenario analysis on Industry 4.0," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Taferner, Stefan Gerhard, 2023. "Strategic Foresight Capability and its Impact on Firm Performance: A systematic, AI-based Literature Review," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 8(3), pages 658-681.
    7. Amber Geurts & Ralph Gutknecht & Philine Warnke & Arjen Goetheer & Elna Schirrmeister & Babette Bakker & Svetlana Meissner, 2022. "New perspectives for data‐supported foresight: The hybrid AI‐expert approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    8. Matthew J. Spaniol & Nicholas J. Rowland, 2019. "Defining scenario," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), March.
    9. Marinković, Milan & Al-Tabbaa, Omar & Khan, Zaheer & Wu, Jie, 2022. "Corporate foresight: A systematic literature review and future research trajectories," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 289-311.
    10. Alessandro Fergnani & John A. Sweeney, 2021. "Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    11. Moqaddamerad, Sara & Ali, Murad, 2024. "Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    12. Juho Roponen & Ahti Salo, 2024. "A probabilistic cross‐impact methodology for explorative scenario analysis," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), March.
    13. Meadows, Maureen & O'Brien, Frances A., 2020. "The use of scenarios in developing strategy: An analysis of conversation and video data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    14. Kerstin E. Cuhls, 2020. "Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), March.
    15. Zenebe Mekonnen, 2020. "Precipitation and Temperature Projections for Medium High Emission Scenario by General Circulation Models for Ethiopia," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 23(4), pages 131-139, March.

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