IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v37y2009i3p698-710.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Driouchi, Tarik
  • Leseure, Michel
  • Bennett, David

Abstract

This paper presents a problem structuring methodology to assess real option decisions in the face of unpredictability. Based on principles of robustness analysis and scenario planning, we demonstrate how decision-aiding can facilitate participation in projects setting and achieve effective decision making through the use of real options reasoning. We argue that robustness heuristics developed in earlier studies can be practical proxies for real options performance, hence indicators of efficient flexible planning. The developed framework also highlights how to integrate real options solutions in firms' strategic plans and operating actions. The use of the methodology in a location decision application is provided for illustration.

Suggested Citation

  • Driouchi, Tarik & Leseure, Michel & Bennett, David, 2009. "A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 698-710, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:37:y:2009:i:3:p:698-710
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305-0483(07)00116-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J Rosenhead, 2006. "Past, present and future of problem structuring methods," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(7), pages 759-765, July.
    2. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Finance Theory and Financial Strategy," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 126-137, February.
    3. Rosenhead, Jonathan, 1981. "Operational research in urban planning," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 345-364.
    4. Sounderpandian, Jayavel & Prasad, Sameer & Madan, Manu, 2008. "Supplies from developing countries: Optimal order quantities under loss risks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 122-130, February.
    5. H-Y Wong & J Rosenhead, 2000. "A rigorous definition of Robustness Analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(2), pages 176-182, February.
    6. Salo, Ahti A., 1995. "Interactive decision aiding for group decision support," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 134-149, July.
    7. Wang, Juite & Hwang, W.-L., 2007. "A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 247-257, June.
    8. MacDougall, Shelley L. & Pike, Richard H., 2003. "Consider your options: changes to strategic value during implementation of advanced manufacturing technology," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Bennett, DJ & Forrester, PL & Hassard, JS, 1990. "An application of decision process modelling to manufacturing system design," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-33.
    10. Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2002. "Real (investment) options with multiple sources of rare events," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 696-706, February.
    11. Coff, Russell W. & Laverty, Kevin J., 2001. "Real options on knowledge assets: Panacea or Pandora's box?," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 73-79.
    12. Peter H. Ritchken & Charles S. Tapiero, 1986. "Contingent Claims Contracting for Purchasing Decisions in Inventory Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 864-870, December.
    13. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    14. Ormerod, RJ, 1998. "Putting Soft OR Methods to Work: Information Systems Strategy Development at Palabora," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 75-98, February.
    15. James E. Smith & Kevin F. McCardle, 1998. "Valuing Oil Properties: Integrating Option Pricing and Decision Analysis Approaches," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 198-217, April.
    16. White, Leroy & Bourne, Humphrey, 2007. "Voices and values: Linking values with participation in OR/MS in public policy making," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 588-603, October.
    17. Mingers, John & Rosenhead, Jonathan, 2004. "Problem structuring methods in action," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 152(3), pages 530-554, February.
    18. Kent D. Miller & Zur Shapira, 2004. "An empirical test of heuristics and biases affecting real option valuation," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 269-284, March.
    19. Leggio, Karyl B., 2004. "Managing uncertainty and risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 633-635, December.
    20. Kidd, J. B. & Prabhu, S. P., 1990. "A practical example of a multi-attribute decision aiding technique," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 139-149.
    21. Arnd Huchzermeier & Morris A. Cohen, 1996. "Valuing Operational Flexibility Under Exchange Rate Risk," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 100-113, February.
    22. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    23. Russell L. Ackoff, 1981. "The Art and Science of Mess Management," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 20-26, February.
    24. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    25. Alex Triantis & Adam Borison, 2001. "Real Options: State Of The Practice," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(2), pages 8-24, June.
    26. Alessandri, Todd M. & Ford, David N. & Lander, Diane M. & Leggio, Karyl B. & Taylor, Marilyn, 2004. "Managing risk and uncertainty in complex capital projects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 751-767, December.
    27. Charles H. Fine & Robert M. Freund, 1990. "Optimal Investment in Product-Flexible Manufacturing Capacity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 449-466, April.
    28. Pennings, Enrico & Lint, Onno, 1997. "The option value of advanced R & D," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 83-94, November.
    29. Mingers, John & Brocklesby, John, 1997. "Multimethodology: Towards a framework for mixing methodologies," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 489-509, October.
    30. Shiv K. Gupta & Jonathan Rosenhead, 1968. "Robustness in Sequential Investment Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 18-29, October.
    31. Bruce Kogut & Nalin Kulatilaka, 1994. "Operating Flexibility, Global Manufacturing, and the Option Value of a Multinational Network," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(1), pages 123-139, January.
    32. Arnd Huchzermeier & Christoph H. Loch, 2001. "Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R...D," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 85-101, January.
    33. M Pidd, 2004. "Contemporary OR/MS in strategy development and policy-making: some reflections," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(8), pages 791-800, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ion Georgiou & Joaquim Heck, 2021. "The emergence of problem structuring methods, 1950s–1989: An atlas of the journal literature," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 756-796, November.
    2. Bednyagin, Denis & Gnansounou, Edgard, 2011. "Real options valuation of fusion energy R&D programme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 116-130, January.
    3. Hassanzadeh, Farhad & Collan, Mikael & Modarres, Mohammad, 2011. "A technical note on "A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model" by Wang and Hwang (2007)," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 464-465, August.
    4. Gabrel, Virginie & Murat, Cécile & Thiele, Aurélie, 2014. "Recent advances in robust optimization: An overview," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 471-483.
    5. Lehr, Thomas & Lorenz, Ullrich & Willert, Markus & Rohrbeck, René, 2017. "Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 214-224.
    6. Liang, Liang & Wang, Xihui & Gao, Jianguo, 2012. "An option contract pricing model of relief material supply chain," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 594-600.
    7. Bednyagin, Denis & Gnansounou, Edgard, 2012. "Estimating spillover benefits of large R&D projects: Application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R&D programme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 269-279.
    8. Moein Khazaei & Mohammad Ramezani & Amin Padash & Dorien DeTombe, 2021. "Creating shared value to redesigning IT-service products using SYRCS; Diagnosing and tackling complex problems," Information Systems and e-Business Management, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 957-992, September.
    9. Federica Cucchiella & Idiano D’Adamo & Massimo Gastaldi & S.C. Lenny Koh, 2014. "Implementation of a real option in a sustainable supply chain: an empirical study of alkaline battery recycling," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 1268-1282, June.
    10. Bell, John E. & Griffis, Stanley E. & Cunningham III, William A. & Eberlan, Jon A., 2011. "Location optimization of strategic alert sites for homeland defense," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 151-158, April.
    11. Hassanzadeh, Farhad & Modarres, Mohammad & Nemati, Hamid R. & Amoako-Gyampah, Kwasi, 2014. "A robust R&D project portfolio optimization model for pharmaceutical contract research organizations," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 18-27.
    12. Lin, Tyrone T. & Huang, Shio-Ling, 2011. "Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 408-420, January.
    13. Li, Xishu & Zuidwijk, Rob & de Koster, M.B.M, 2023. "Optimal competitive capacity strategies: Evidence from the container shipping market," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    14. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2021. "The uncertainty-investment relationship with endogenous capacity," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    15. Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Zacharias, Eleftherios, 2013. "Real option games with R&D and learning spillovers," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 236-249.
    16. Wu, Desheng & Olson, David L. & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Finance-operations interface mechanism and models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-3.
    17. Lin, Tyrone T. & Huang, Shio-Ling, 2010. "An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 794-802, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, Tyrone T. & Huang, Shio-Ling, 2011. "Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 408-420, January.
    2. Ion Georgiou & Joaquim Heck, 2021. "The emergence of problem structuring methods, 1950s–1989: An atlas of the journal literature," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 756-796, November.
    3. Li, Yong & James, Barclay & Madhavan, Ravi & Mahoney, Joseph T., 2006. "Real Options: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead," Working Papers 06-0114, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.
    4. Lin, Tyrone T. & Huang, Shio-Ling, 2010. "An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 794-802, February.
    5. White, Leroy, 2016. "Behavioural operational research: Towards a framework for understanding behaviour in OR interventions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 827-841.
    6. Shu Feng & Chun-Yu Ho, 2016. "The real option approach to adoption or discontinuation of a management accounting innovation: the case of activity-based costing," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 835-856, October.
    7. Driouchi, Tarik & Bennett, David, 2011. "Real options in multinational decision-making: Managerial awareness and risk implications," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 205-219, April.
    8. Lukas, Elmar, 2013. "Modeling the transitional dynamics of international joint venture policies: An option pricing approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 21-36.
    9. Charalambides, Marios & Koussis, Nicos, 2018. "A stochastic model with interacting managerial operating options and debt rescheduling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 236-249.
    10. Ioulianou, Sophocles & Trigeorgis, Lenos & Driouchi, Tarik, 2017. "Multinationality and firm value: The role of real options awareness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 77-96.
    11. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    12. Spiros H. Martzoukos & Nayia Pospori & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2024. "Corporate investment decisions with switch flexibility, constraints, and path-dependency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1223-1250, April.
    13. Douglas A. Bodner & William B. Rouse, 2007. "Understanding R&D value creation with organizational simulation," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(1), pages 64-82, March.
    14. Gordon Briest & Elmar Lukas & Sascha H. Mölls & Timo Willershausen, 2020. "Innovation speed under uncertainty and competition," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1517-1527, December.
    15. Morreale, Azzurra & Mittone, Luigi & Lo Nigro, Giovanna, 2019. "Risky choices in strategic environments: An experimental investigation of a real options game," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(1), pages 143-158.
    16. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    17. Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Zacharias, Eleftherios, 2013. "Real option games with R&D and learning spillovers," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 236-249.
    18. Horn, Anders & Kjærland, Frode & Molnár, Peter & Steen, Beate Wollen, 2015. "The use of real option theory in Scandinavia's largest companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 74-81.
    19. Ackermann, Fran, 2012. "Problem structuring methods ‘in the Dock’: Arguing the case for Soft OR," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 652-658.
    20. Jan Vlachý, 2009. "Strategie podniku a finanční teorie [Corporate strategy and financial theory]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(2), pages 147-162.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:37:y:2009:i:3:p:698-710. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.