IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v118y2017icp1-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A key stakeholder-based financial subsidy stimulation for Chinese EV industrialization: A system dynamics simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Lu, Chao
  • Liu, Hu-Chen
  • Tao, Jie
  • Rong, Ke
  • Hsieh, Ying-Che

Abstract

Successful policy-making for an emerging industry relies on two key factors: adopting a scientific perspective and accurately forecasting the policy's potential effects. By combining Mitchell's score-based approach and expert grading method, this paper identifies the key stakeholders of the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry, and proposes a key stakeholder-based policy research framework (G-MIC: Government — Manufacturers, Infrastructure, Consumers). Furthermore, a system dynamics (SD) model is outlined, focusing on financial subsidy (FS) policy and the three groups of programs that are set to simulate level of FS, FS allocation, and the demand for realizing the CAO (Civilian Auto Ownership) goal of the Chinese EV industry by 2020. The findings reveal that the following show that a key stakeholder perspective is a better approach to policy research; the SD model constructed under the G-MIC framework extends the methodology of SD; and a “bottom-up” policy-making path is more likely to improve policy outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Chao & Liu, Hu-Chen & Tao, Jie & Rong, Ke & Hsieh, Ying-Che, 2017. "A key stakeholder-based financial subsidy stimulation for Chinese EV industrialization: A system dynamics simulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:118:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162517301099
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.022?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weber, K. Matthias & Rohracher, Harald, 2012. "Legitimizing research, technology and innovation policies for transformative change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1037-1047.
    2. Nishimura, Junichi & Okamuro, Hiroyuki, 2011. "Subsidy and networking: The effects of direct and indirect support programs of the cluster policy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 714-727, June.
    3. Jonathan P. Doh & Terrence R. Guay, 2006. "Corporate Social Responsibility, Public Policy, and NGO Activism in Europe and the United States: An Institutional‐Stakeholder Perspective," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 47-73, January.
    4. Spyridaki, Niki-Artemis & Banaka, Stefania & Flamos, Alexandros, 2016. "Evaluating public policy instruments in the Greek building sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 528-543.
    5. Philip Anderson, 1999. "Perspective: Complexity Theory and Organization Science," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 216-232, June.
    6. Gregory, Robin & Wellman, Katharine, 2001. "Bringing stakeholder values into environmental policy choices: a community-based estuary case study," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 37-52, October.
    7. Aschhoff, Birgit & Sofka, Wolfgang, 2009. "Innovation on demand--Can public procurement drive market success of innovations?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1235-1247, October.
    8. Edquist, Charles & Zabala-Iturriagagoitia, Jon Mikel, 2012. "Public Procurement for Innovation as mission-oriented innovation policy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 1757-1769.
    9. Cuppen, Eefje, 2012. "A quasi-experimental evaluation of learning in a stakeholder dialogue on bio-energy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 624-637.
    10. Edward Freeman, R. & Evan, William M., 1990. "Corporate governance: A stakeholder interpretation," Journal of Behavioral Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 337-359.
    11. Caroline D. Ditlev‐Simonsen & Atle Midttun, 2011. "What motivates managers to pursue corporate responsibility? a survey among key stakeholders," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 25-38, January.
    12. Adam B. Jaffe & Trinh Le, 2015. "The Impact of R&D Subsidy on Innovation: a Study of New Zealand Firms," NBER Working Papers 21479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Sabatier, Paul A., 1986. "Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches to Implementation Research: a Critical Analysis and Suggested Synthesis," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 21-48, January.
    14. Robin Gregory & Ralph L. Keeney, 1994. "Creating Policy Alternatives Using Stakeholder Values," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(8), pages 1035-1048, August.
    15. Gerald Vinten, 2001. "Shareholder versus Stakeholder – is there a Governance Dilemma?," Corporate Governance: An International Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 36-47, January.
    16. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter, 2016. "Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 97-108.
    17. Dang, Jianwei & Motohashi, Kazuyuki, 2015. "Patent statistics: A good indicator for innovation in China? Patent subsidy program impacts on patent quality," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 137-155.
    18. Giada Marchi & Giulia Lucertini & Alexis Tsoukiàs, 2016. "From evidence-based policy making to policy analytics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 236(1), pages 15-38, January.
    19. Giada Marchi & Giulia Lucertini & Alexis Tsoukiàs, 2016. "From evidence-based policy making to policy analytics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 236(1), pages 15-38, January.
    20. Valerio Gatta & Edoardo Marcucci, 2016. "Stakeholder-specific data acquisition and urban freight policy evaluation: evidence, implications and new suggestions," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 585-609, September.
    21. Desmarchelier, Benoît & Fang, Eddy S., 2016. "National culture and innovation diffusion. Exploratory insights from agent-based modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 121-128.
    22. Wiesenthal, Tobias & Leduc, Guillaume & Haegeman, Karel & Schwarz, Hans-Günther, 2012. "Bottom-up estimation of industrial and public R&D investment by technology in support of policy-making: The case of selected low-carbon energy technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 116-131.
    23. Douthwaite, B. & Keatinge, J. D. H. & Park, J. R., 2001. "Why promising technologies fail: the neglected role of user innovation during adoption," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 819-836, May.
    24. Amy J. Hillman & Gerald D. Keim, 2001. "Shareholder value, stakeholder management, and social issues: what's the bottom line?," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 125-139, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hongxia Sun & Yao Wan & Huirong Lv, 2020. "System Dynamics Model for the Evolutionary Behaviour of Government Enterprises and Consumers in China’s New Energy Vehicle Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Jin, Tao & Jiang, Yulian & Liu, Xingwen, 2023. "Evolutionary game analysis of the impact of dynamic dual credit policy on new energy vehicles after subsidy cancellation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    3. Zhang, Dongyang, 2023. "Subsidy expiration and greenwashing decision: Is there a role of bankruptcy risk?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Chao Lu & Jie Tao & Qiuxian An & Xiaodong Lai, 2020. "A second-order cone programming based robust data envelopment analysis model for the new-energy vehicle industry," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(1), pages 321-339, September.
    5. Lu, Chao & Chang, Feifan & Rong, Ke & Shi, Yongjiang & Yu, Xiaoyu, 2020. "Deprecated in policy, abundant in market? The frugal innovation of Chinese low-speed EV industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    6. Wang, Ning & Shang, Kai & Duan, Yan & Qin, Dandan, 2023. "Carbon quota allocation modeling framework in the automotive industry based on repeated game theory: A case study of ten Chinese automotive enterprises," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    7. Liu, Chang & Liu, Yuan & Zhang, Dayong & Xie, Chunping, 2022. "The capital market responses to new energy vehicle (NEV) subsidies: An event study on China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    8. Kong, Deyang & Xia, Quhong & Xue, Yixi & Zhao, Xin, 2020. "Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    9. Xie, Hualin & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Xinmin, 2018. "Evolutionary game and simulation of management strategies of fallow cultivated land: A case study in Hunan province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 86-97.
    10. Qingyou Yan & Guangyu Qin & Meijuan Zhang & Bowen Xiao, 2019. "Research on Real Purchasing Behavior Analysis of Electric Cars in Beijing Based on Structural Equation Modeling and Multinomial Logit Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-15, October.
    11. Zihan Zhang & Junkang Song & Wanjiang Wang, 2023. "Study on the Behavior Strategy of the Subject of Low-Carbon Retrofit of Residential Buildings Based on Tripartite Evolutionary Game," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, May.
    12. Wang, Ning & Tang, Linhao & Zhang, Wenjian & Guo, Jiahui, 2019. "How to face the challenges caused by the abolishment of subsidies for electric vehicles in China?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 359-372.
    13. Jianlong Wu & Zhongji Yang & Xiaobo Hu & Hongqi Wang & Jing Huang, 2018. "Exploring Driving Forces of Sustainable Development of China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry: An Analysis from the Perspective of an Innovation Ecosystem," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Liu, Hu-Chen & You, Xiao-Yue & Xue, Yi-Xi & Luan, Xue, 2017. "Exploring critical factors influencing the diffusion of electric vehicles in China: A multi-stakeholder perspective," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 46-58.
    15. Zhang, Ruining & Ai, Xianneng & Li, Hui, 2023. "How to design subsidy policies for clean energy projects? A study on “coal-to-gas” project in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    16. Yanyan Liu & Ying Cheng & Wei Liu, 2018. "Understanding Gatekeeping Transformation in the Chinese EV Industry: An Exploratory Study of the Focal Firms' Cross-industrial Interactions," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 16(3-B), pages 485-503.
    17. Li, Jingjing & Nian, Victor & Jiao, Jianling, 2022. "Diffusion and benefits evaluation of electric vehicles under policy interventions based on a multiagent system dynamics model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    18. Li, Hui & Zhang, Ruining & Ai, Xianneng, 2022. "Cost estimation of “coal-to-gas” project: Government and residents’ perspectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    19. Guzzo, Daniel & Rodrigues, Vinicius Picanço & Mascarenhas, Janaina, 2021. "A systems representation of the Circular Economy: Transition scenarios in the electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    20. Li, Yina & Liang, Chenchen & Ye, Fei & Zhao, Xiande, 2023. "Designing government subsidy schemes to promote the electric vehicle industry: A system dynamics model perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    21. Ye, Rui-Ke & Gao, Zhuang-Fei & Fang, Kai & Liu, Kang-Li & Chen, Jia-Wei, 2021. "Moving from subsidy stimulation to endogenous development: A system dynamics analysis of China's NEVs in the post-subsidy era," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    22. Zhu, Lin & Cunningham, Scott W., 2022. "Unveiling the knowledge structure of technological forecasting and social change (1969–2020) through an NMF-based hierarchical topic model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Uyarra, Elvira & Zabala-Iturriagagoitia, Jon Mikel & Flanagan, Kieron & Magro, Edurne, 2020. "Public procurement, innovation and industrial policy: Rationales, roles, capabilities and implementation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    2. Ayuso, Silvia & Rodriguez, Miguel A. & Garcia, Roberto & Ariño, Miguel A., 2007. "Maximizing stakeholders' interests: An empirical analysis of the stakeholder approach to corporate governance," IESE Research Papers D/670, IESE Business School.
    3. Edler, Jakob, 2023. "Demand, public procurement and transformation," Discussion Papers "Innovation Systems and Policy Analysis" 79, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    4. M. Bugge , Markus & Coenen, Lars & Branstad, Are, 2015. "The Roles of Governance in Co-Evolutionary and Transformative Change - The Case of Active Ageing," Papers in Innovation Studies 2015/32, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.
    5. Kong, Deyang & Xia, Quhong & Xue, Yixi & Zhao, Xin, 2020. "Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    6. Helen Ngozi ELEMS-IKWEGBU, Ph.D, 2024. "Comparative Analysis of Educational Policy Formulation and Implementation Strategies in Developed and Developing Countries," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 11(7), pages 922-941, July.
    7. Liotard, Isabelle & Revest, Valérie, 2018. "Contests as innovation policy instruments: Lessons from the US federal agencies' experience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 57-69.
    8. Nigel Martin & John Rice, 2010. "Analysing emission intensive firms as regulatory stakeholders: a role for adaptable business strategy," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 64-75, January.
    9. Benedict E. DeDominicis, 2021. "Multinational Enterprises And Economic Nationalism: A Strategic Analysis Of Culture," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 15(1), pages 19-66.
    10. Ghisetti, Claudia, 2017. "Demand-pull and environmental innovations: Estimating the effects of innovative public procurement," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 178-187.
    11. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2017. "Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 293-351, April.
    12. Riccardo Crescenzi & Guido de Blasio & Mara Giua, 2020. "Cohesion Policy incentives for collaborative industrial research: evaluation of a Smart Specialisation forerunner programme," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(10), pages 1341-1353, October.
    13. Krieger, Bastian & Zipperer, Vera, 2022. "Does green public procurement trigger environmental innovations?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(6).
    14. Maria Franca Norese & Diana Rolando & Rocco Curto, 2023. "DIKEDOC: a multicriteria methodology to organise and communicate knowledge," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(2), pages 1049-1082, June.
    15. Shao‐Chi Chang & Heng‐Yu Chang, 2015. "Corporate Motivations of Product Recall Strategy: Exploring the Role of Corporate Social Responsibility in Stakeholder Engagement," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(6), pages 393-407, November.
    16. Huang, Cui & Yang, Chao & Su, Jun, 2021. "Identifying core policy instruments based on structural holes: A case study of China’s nuclear energy policy," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2).
    17. Cameron A. MacKenzie & Kristy A. Bryden & Anna A. Prisacari, 2020. "Integrating narratives into decision making for complex systems engineering design issues," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 65-81, January.
    18. Mauro Sciarelli & Mario Tani & Giovanni Landi & Ornella Papaluca, 2019. "The Impact of Social Responsibility Disclosure on Corporate Financial Health: Evidences from Some Italian Public Companies," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(3), pages 109-122, March.
    19. Shuang Wang & Shukuan Zhao & Dong Shao & Hongyu Liu, 2020. "Impact of Government Subsidies on Manufacturing Innovation in China: The Moderating Role of Political Connections and Investor Attention," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-21, September.
    20. Joern H. Block & Marcus Wagner, 2014. "The Effect of Family Ownership on Different Dimensions of Corporate Social Responsibility: Evidence from Large US Firms," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(7), pages 475-492, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:118:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.