IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v168y2021ics004016252100189x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Moving from subsidy stimulation to endogenous development: A system dynamics analysis of China's NEVs in the post-subsidy era

Author

Listed:
  • Ye, Rui-Ke
  • Gao, Zhuang-Fei
  • Fang, Kai
  • Liu, Kang-Li
  • Chen, Jia-Wei

Abstract

Development in new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been playing a critical role in carbon emission reduction and air pollution control. In recent years, China has made substantial progress in NEVs through purchase subsidies. However, financial subsidy has come under criticism for its unsustainability. The fact that Chinese government has gradually reduced the subsidies suggests that NEVs will be probably entering a post-subsidy era. It makes sense to seek for an alternative approach to boosting the NEV industry. By comparing the supply and demand sides, this study constructed a endogenous development diamond model to evaluate the overall effects of multiple factors that relate to China's NEVs. Our research demonstrates that, in the post-subsidy era, the transition of NEVs from subsidy stimulation to endogenous development will be depending on various interacting factors, namely, basic resources, demand conditions, supporting measures, and model innovations. Amongst the supporting measures are more prominent than the other primary factors, whereas technological innovation has the most positive effect on the promotion of NEVs in second-level factors. Our empirical analysis shows that NEV subsidy reduction is feasible because there have been alternative policy tools to replace the subsidy. Policymakers should focus on the synergies of various policy tools.

Suggested Citation

  • Ye, Rui-Ke & Gao, Zhuang-Fei & Fang, Kai & Liu, Kang-Li & Chen, Jia-Wei, 2021. "Moving from subsidy stimulation to endogenous development: A system dynamics analysis of China's NEVs in the post-subsidy era," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:168:y:2021:i:c:s004016252100189x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120757
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016252100189X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120757?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Kai & Tang, Yiqi & Zhang, Qifeng & Song, Junnian & Wen, Qi & Sun, Huaping & Ji, Chenyang & Xu, Anqi, 2019. "Will China peak its energy-related carbon emissions by 2030? Lessons from 30 Chinese provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Shih, Yi-Hsuan & Tseng, Chao-Heng, 2014. "Cost-benefit analysis of sustainable energy development using life-cycle co-benefits assessment and the system dynamics approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 57-66.
    3. Barlas, Yaman, 1989. "Multiple tests for validation of system dynamics type of simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 59-87, September.
    4. Sun, Huaping & Geng, Yong & Hu, Lingxiang & Shi, Longyu & Xu, Tong, 2018. "Measuring China's new energy vehicle patents: A social network analysis approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 685-693.
    5. Li, Xiaomin & Chen, Pu & Wang, Xingwu, 2017. "Impacts of renewables and socioeconomic factors on electric vehicle demands – Panel data studies across 14 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 473-478.
    6. Juul, Nina, 2012. "Battery prices and capacity sensitivity: Electric drive vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 403-410.
    7. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan & Seong, Baek Seo, 2010. "How to do structural validity of a system dynamics type simulation model: The case of an energy policy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2216-2224, May.
    8. Zhang, Xingping & Liang, Yanni & Yu, Enhai & Rao, Rao & Xie, Jian, 2017. "Review of electric vehicle policies in China: Content summary and effect analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 698-714.
    9. Jeon, Chanwoong & Lee, Jeongjin & Shin, Juneseuk, 2015. "Optimal subsidy estimation method using system dynamics and the real option model: Photovoltaic technology case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 33-43.
    10. Li, Yaoming & Zhang, Qi & Liu, Boyu & McLellan, Benjamin & Gao, Yuan & Tang, Yanyan, 2018. "Substitution effect of New-Energy Vehicle Credit Program and Corporate Average Fuel Consumption Regulation for Green-car Subsidy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 223-236.
    11. Liu, Dunnan & Xiao, Bowen, 2018. "Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 8-23.
    12. Lu, Chao & Liu, Hu-Chen & Tao, Jie & Rong, Ke & Hsieh, Ying-Che, 2017. "A key stakeholder-based financial subsidy stimulation for Chinese EV industrialization: A system dynamics simulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1-14.
    13. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying & Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon E. & Kim, Son H. & Patel, Pralit L. & Yu, Sha & Kyle, G. Page, 2015. "China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 233-248.
    14. Langbroek, Joram H.M. & Franklin, Joel P. & Susilo, Yusak O., 2016. "The effect of policy incentives on electric vehicle adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 94-103.
    15. Lee, Yongseung & Kim, Chongman & Shin, Juneseuk, 2016. "A hybrid electric vehicle market penetration model to identify the best policy mix: A consumer ownership cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 438-449.
    16. Kumar, M. Satyendra & Revankar, Shripad T., 2017. "Development scheme and key technology of an electric vehicle: An overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1266-1285.
    17. Long, Yin & Yoshida, Yoshikuni & Fang, Kai & Zhang, Haoran & Dhondt, Maya, 2019. "City-level household carbon footprint from purchaser point of view by a modified input-output model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 379-387.
    18. He, Y.X. & Jiao, J. & Chen, R.J. & Shu, H., 2018. "The optimization of Chinese power grid investment based on transmission and distribution tariff policy: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 112-122.
    19. He, Yongxiu & Zhang, Qi & Pang, Yuexia, 2017. "The development pattern design of Chinese electric vehicles based on the analysis of the critical price of the life cycle cost," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 382-388.
    20. Nilsson, Måns & Nykvist, Björn, 2016. "Governing the electric vehicle transition – Near term interventions to support a green energy economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1360-1371.
    21. Luo, Xiao & Dong, Liang & Dou, Yi & Li, Yan & Liu, Kai & Ren, Jingzheng & Liang, Hanwei & Mai, Xianmin, 2017. "Factor decomposition analysis and causal mechanism investigation on urban transport CO2 emissions: Comparative study on Shanghai and Tokyo," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 658-668.
    22. Fang, Kai & Zhou, Yunheng & Wang, Shuang & Ye, Ruike & Guo, Sujian, 2018. "Assessing national renewable energy competitiveness of the G20: A revised Porter's Diamond Model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 719-731.
    23. Nienhueser, Ian Andrew & Qiu, Yueming, 2016. "Economic and environmental impacts of providing renewable energy for electric vehicle charging – A choice experiment study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 256-268.
    24. Dong, Feng & Liu, Yajie, 2020. "Policy evolution and effect evaluation of new-energy vehicle industry in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    25. Skippon, Stephen M. & Kinnear, Neale & Lloyd, Louise & Stannard, Jenny, 2016. "How experience of use influences mass-market drivers’ willingness to consider a battery electric vehicle: A randomised controlled trial," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 26-42.
    26. Zhang, Xian & Wang, Ke & Hao, Yu & Fan, Jing-Li & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2013. "The impact of government policy on preference for NEVs: The evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 382-393.
    27. Zhang, Xingping & Liang, Yanni & Liu, Wenfeng, 2017. "Pricing model for the charging of electric vehicles based on system dynamics in Beijing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 218-234.
    28. Steinhilber, Simone & Wells, Peter & Thankappan, Samarthia, 2013. "Socio-technical inertia: Understanding the barriers to electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 531-539.
    29. Ma, Shao-Chao & Fan, Ying & Feng, Lianyong, 2017. "An evaluation of government incentives for new energy vehicles in China focusing on vehicle purchasing restrictions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 609-618.
    30. Xu, Lei & Su, Jun, 2016. "From government to market and from producer to consumer: Transition of policy mix towards clean mobility in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 328-340.
    31. Troy R. Hawkins & Bhawna Singh & Guillaume Majeau‐Bettez & Anders Hammer Strømman, 2013. "Comparative Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Conventional and Electric Vehicles," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 17(1), pages 53-64, February.
    32. Hongxia Sun & Yao Wan & Huirong Lv, 2020. "System Dynamics Model for the Evolutionary Behaviour of Government Enterprises and Consumers in China’s New Energy Vehicle Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, February.
    33. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2014. "Green power in Ontario: A dynamic model-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 859-870.
    34. Brady, John & O’Mahony, Margaret, 2016. "Development of a driving cycle to evaluate the energy economy of electric vehicles in urban areas," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 165-178.
    35. Ma, Shao-Chao & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2019. "Willingness to pay and preferences for alternative incentives to EV purchase subsidies: An empirical study in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 197-215.
    36. Sen, Burak & Noori, Mehdi & Tatari, Omer, 2017. "Will Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standard help? Modeling CAFE's impact on market share of electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 279-287.
    37. Sun, Xiaohua & Liu, Xiaoling & Wang, Yun & Yuan, Fang, 2019. "The effects of public subsidies on emerging industry: An agent-based model of the electric vehicle industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 281-295.
    38. Dariush Khezrimotlagh & Yao Chen, 2018. "The Optimization Approach," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Decision Making and Performance Evaluation Using Data Envelopment Analysis, chapter 0, pages 107-134, Springer.
    39. Wu, Yunna & Xiao, Xinli & Song, Zongyun, 2017. "Competitiveness analysis of coal industry in China: A diamond model study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 39-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xi & Xiong, Zhen & Li, Xingong & Xiong, Yongqing, 2024. "How do nonsubsidized incentive affect enterprises' innovation choices? A case from the new energy vehicle industry in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    2. Liu, Qin & Wen, Xiaonan & Cao, Qinwei, 2023. "Multi-objective development path evolution of new energy vehicle policy driven by big data: From the perspective of economic-ecological-social," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    3. Fang, Kai & Li, Chenglin & Tang, Yiqi & He, Jianjian & Song, Junnian, 2022. "China’s pathways to peak carbon emissions: New insights from various industrial sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    4. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Xue, Mei-Mei & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Masui, Toshihiko & Ren, Zhong-Yuan, 2022. "How do demand-side policies contribute to the electrification and decarburization of private transportation in China? A CGE-based analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    5. Feng, Xiao & Li, Yuyu & Huang, Bo, 2023. "Research on manufacturer's investment strategy and green credit policy for new energy vehicles based on consumers' preferences and technology adoption," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Wang, Zhongcheng & Li, Xinyue & Xue, Xinhong & Liu, Yahuan, 2022. "More government subsidies, more green innovation? The evidence from Chinese new energy vehicle enterprises," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 11-21.
    7. He, Jianjian & Yang, Yi & Liao, Zhongju & Xu, Anqi & Fang, Kai, 2022. "Linking SDG 7 to assess the renewable energy footprint of nations by 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    8. Liu, Diyi & Qi, Suntong & Xu, Tiantong, 2023. "In the post-subsidy era: How to encourage mere consumers to become prosumers when subsidy reduced?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    9. Liu, Bingchun & Song, Chengyuan & Wang, Qingshan & Zhang, Xinming & Chen, Jiali, 2022. "Research on regional differences of China's new energy vehicles promotion policies: A perspective of sales volume forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    10. Li, Miaomiao & Cao, Guikun & Cui, Li & Liu, Xiaoquan & Dai, Jing, 2023. "Examining how government subsidies influence firms’ circular supply chain management: The role of eco-innovation and top management team," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    11. Xie, Minghua & Min, Jialin & Fang, Xingming & Sun, Chuanwang & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Policy selection based on China's natural gas security evaluation and comparison," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    12. Ying Sun & Fengqin Liu & Huaping Sun, 2022. "Does Standardization Improve Carbon Emission Efficiency as Soft Infrastructure? Evidence from China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, March.
    13. Zhang, Ruining & Ai, Xianneng & Li, Hui, 2023. "How to design subsidy policies for clean energy projects? A study on “coal-to-gas” project in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    14. Li, Jingjing & Nian, Victor & Jiao, Jianling, 2022. "Diffusion and benefits evaluation of electric vehicles under policy interventions based on a multiagent system dynamics model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    15. Liu, Bingchun & Song, Chengyuan & Liang, Xiaoqin & Lai, Mingzhao & Yu, Zhecheng & Ji, Jie, 2023. "Regional differences in China's electric vehicle sales forecasting: Under supply-demand policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    16. Sun, Ya-Fang & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Su, Bin, 2022. "Impact of government subsidy on the optimal R&D and advertising investment in the cooperative supply chain of new energy vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    17. Jiang, Zihao & Liu, Zhiying, 2022. "Policies and exploitative and exploratory innovations of the wind power industry in China: The role of technological path dependence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    18. Ye, Ruike & Zhou, Yunheng & Chen, Jiawei & Tu, Kevin, 2021. "Natural gas security evaluation from a supply vs. demand perspective: A quantitative application of four As," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Dunnan & Xiao, Bowen, 2018. "Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 8-23.
    2. Dong, Feng & Liu, Yajie, 2020. "Policy evolution and effect evaluation of new-energy vehicle industry in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Kong, Deyang & Xia, Quhong & Xue, Yixi & Zhao, Xin, 2020. "Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    4. Feng, Sida & Magee, Christopher L., 2020. "Technological development of key domains in electric vehicles: Improvement rates, technology trajectories and key assignees," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    5. Liu, Chang & Liu, Yuan & Zhang, Dayong & Xie, Chunping, 2022. "The capital market responses to new energy vehicle (NEV) subsidies: An event study on China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    6. Jianlong Wu & Zhongji Yang & Xiaobo Hu & Hongqi Wang & Jing Huang, 2018. "Exploring Driving Forces of Sustainable Development of China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry: An Analysis from the Perspective of an Innovation Ecosystem," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-24, December.
    7. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Tong, Zihao & Hubacek, Klaus, 2022. "Strategies for applying carbon trading to the new energy vehicle market in China: An improved evolutionary game analysis for the bus industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    8. Han, Jing & Guo, Ju-E & Cai, Xun & Lv, Cheng & Lev, Benjamin, 2022. "An analysis on strategy evolution of research & development in cooperative innovation network of new energy vehicle within policy transition period," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Zheng, Xuemei & Menezes, Flavio & Zheng, Xiaofeng & Wu, Chengkuan, 2022. "An empirical assessment of the impact of subsidies on EV adoption in China: A difference-in-differences approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 121-136.
    10. Rasti-Barzoki, Morteza & Moon, Ilkyeong, 2021. "A game theoretic approach for analyzing electric and gasoline-based vehicles’ competition in a supply chain under government sustainable strategies: A case study of South Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Hongxia Sun & Yao Wan & Huirong Lv, 2020. "System Dynamics Model for the Evolutionary Behaviour of Government Enterprises and Consumers in China’s New Energy Vehicle Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, February.
    12. Jin, Tao & Jiang, Yulian & Liu, Xingwen, 2023. "Evolutionary game analysis of the impact of dynamic dual credit policy on new energy vehicles after subsidy cancellation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    13. Li, Jingjing & Nian, Victor & Jiao, Jianling, 2022. "Diffusion and benefits evaluation of electric vehicles under policy interventions based on a multiagent system dynamics model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    14. Zhao, Dan & Ji, Shou-feng & Wang, He-ping & Jiang, Li-wen, 2021. "How do government subsidies promote new energy vehicle diffusion in the complex network context? A three-stage evolutionary game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    15. Zhu, Lijing & Wang, Peize & Zhang, Qi, 2019. "Indirect network effects in China’s electric vehicle diffusion under phasing out subsidies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Ma, Shao-Chao & Fan, Ying, 2020. "A deployment model of EV charging piles and its impact on EV promotion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    17. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Li, Songrui, 2022. "How can personal carbon trading be applied in electric vehicle subsidies? A Stackelberg game method in private vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    18. Jia Yao & Siqin Xiong & Xiaoming Ma, 2020. "Comparative Analysis of National Policies for Electric Vehicle Uptake Using Econometric Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-18, July.
    19. Yao, Xusheng & Ma, Shoufeng & Bai, Yin & Jia, Ning, 2022. "When are new energy vehicle incentives effective? Empirical evidence from 88 pilot cities in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 207-224.
    20. Ji, Qing & Wang, Chunan & Fan, Ying, 2022. "Environmental and welfare effects of vehicle purchase tax: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:168:y:2021:i:c:s004016252100189x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.