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More than just supply and demand: Macroeconomic shock decomposition in Croatia during and after the transition period

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  • Barišić, Patrik
  • Kovač, Tibor
  • Arčabić, Vladimir

Abstract

This paper separates macroeconomic shocks into external and domestic aggregate demand and supply shocks in Croatia during and after the transition period using a Bayesian SVAR model. The standard decomposition into aggregate demand and supply shocks covers important information on external sources of economic fluctuations. We find that domestic shocks were a dominant source of fluctuations during the transition period from 1992 to 2000. External shocks increased their importance after 2000, becoming the dominant source of fluctuations with the Global financial crisis. International comparison with other EU post-transition countries shows that short run GDP fluctuations are best explained by domestic aggregate supply shocks in 9 out of 11 analyzed countries, including Croatia. However, in the medium run, GDP fluctuations are dominantly explained by external aggregate demand shocks in 8 out of 11 countries, including Croatia. Inflation in Croatia is driven by external shocks both in the short- and medium run.

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  • Barišić, Patrik & Kovač, Tibor & Arčabić, Vladimir, 2023. "More than just supply and demand: Macroeconomic shock decomposition in Croatia during and after the transition period," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 420-438.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:67:y:2023:i:c:p:420-438
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2023.09.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small open economy; Post-transition countries; Aggregate supply and demand shocks; External and domestic shocks; Bayesian SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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