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Introduction of the euro in CEE countries - is it economically justifiable? The Croatian case

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  • Tanja Broz

Abstract

This article analyses correlation of demand and supply shocks between the EMU and the CEECs in order to see whether there is some degree of business cycle coordination between them. The main interest is to investigate the impact on Croatia and compare it with other CEECs. Information on the correlation of demand and supply shocks between the EMU and CEECs is important if a country wants to join the monetary union, since synchronisation of business cycles and policy coordination will have a significant impact on willingness to enter the monetary union (unless the decision is a political one). We employ structural vector autoregression in order to identify demand and supply shocks and analyse their correlation, size and speed of adjustment. The results indicate that at the moment Croatia is far from ready for the common monetary policy of the EMU, while among other CEE countries Slovenia and Latvia have the closest connection between their business cycles and those of the EMU.

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  • Tanja Broz, 2010. "Introduction of the euro in CEE countries - is it economically justifiable? The Croatian case," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 427-447.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:22:y:2010:i:4:p:427-447
    DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2010.518449
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
    2. Mr. Michael Frenkel & Mr. Christiane Nickel, 2002. "How Symmetric Are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics Between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2002/222, International Monetary Fund.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2004. "Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Comovements in the New and Old Members," MNB Working Papers 2004/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. Laurence Boone, 1997. "Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union," Working Papers 1997-03, CEPII research center.
    6. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 76-94.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Tanja Broz, 2007. "The Application Of Optimum Currency Area Criteria To Croatia," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(9), pages 7-19, November.
    9. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Operationalizing the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Ian Babetskii, 2004. "EU Enlargement and Endogeneity of some OCA Criteria: Evidence from the CEECs," Working Papers 2004/02, Czech National Bank.
    11. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Tanja Broz & Dinko Dubravcic, 2011. "The Dutch Disease in Unwonted Places. Why has Croatia been Infected while Slovenia Remains in Good Health?," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 9(1), pages 47-66.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barišić, Patrik & Kovač, Tibor & Arčabić, Vladimir, 2023. "More than just supply and demand: Macroeconomic shock decomposition in Croatia during and after the transition period," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 420-438.
    2. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz, 2016. "Bilateral Trade and SEE–Eurozone Countries Growth Rate Alignment," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(2 (Summer), pages 137-155.
    3. Milena Otavová & Jana Gláserová & Pavel Semerád, 2021. "Is the Category of Micro-Undertakings in the Visegrad Group Countries Relevantly Defined?," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 198-209.
    4. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz, 2016. "Exploring CESEE-EMU Synchronisation Patterns," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(42), pages 255-255, May.
    5. Milan Deskar-Škrbiæ & Antonija Buljan & Mirna Dumèiæ, 2020. "Real interest rate convergence and monetary policy independence in CEE countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 38(2), pages 349-380.
    6. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "The stationarity of inflation in Croatia: anti-inflation stabilization program and the change in persistence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 45-58, February.
    7. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz & Sasa Jaksic, 2019. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with the Euro Area Countries at Times of Crisis: Differences Between SEE and CEE Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(2), pages 175-191.

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