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How Much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks?

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  • Bartosz Maćkowiak

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, Humboldt University Berlin, Spandauer Strasse 1, 10178 Berlin, Germany.)

Abstract

We decompose by origin the sources of the variation in real aggregate output and aggregate price level in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We find that a sizable fraction of the variation is attributable to external shocks, especially so for aggregate price level. We show that euroarea interest rate shocks can account for a significant fraction of the external spillover effects. We conclude that theoretical models of advanced transition economies and policy rules for these economies should feature a prominent role for external shocks. Comparative Economic Studies (2006) 48, 523–544. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100143

Suggested Citation

  • Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2006. "How Much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 523-544, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:48:y:2006:i:3:p:523-544
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    Cited by:

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    2. Barišić, Patrik & Kovač, Tibor & Arčabić, Vladimir, 2023. "More than just supply and demand: Macroeconomic shock decomposition in Croatia during and after the transition period," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 420-438.
    3. István Ábel & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Macroeconomic Risks and Monetary Policy in Central European Countries: Parallels in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-26, November.
    4. Aleksandra Halka & Grzegorz Szafranski, 2018. "What Common Factors are Driving Inflation in CEE Countries?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(2), pages 131-148.
    5. Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2020. "Propagation of economic shocks from Russia and Western European countries to CEE-Baltic countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(3), pages 489-512, September.
    6. Katarzyna Kubiszewska, 2013. "Economic Crisis In Croatia," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 57-72, June.
    7. Svitlana Maksymenko, 2015. "The Cost of Euro Adoption in Poland," Working Paper 5779, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    8. Deskar-Škrbić, Milan & Kotarac, Karlo & Kunovac, Davor, 2020. "The third round of euro area enlargement: Are the candidates ready?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    9. Josef C. Brada & Jan KubÃ­Ä ek & Ali M. Kutan & Vladimír Tomšík, 2015. "Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 357-376, September.
    10. Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2016. "Spillover of the ECB's monetary policy outside the euro area: How different is conventional from unconventional policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 199-225.
    11. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    12. Slavov, Slavi T., 2008. "Measuring and modeling the effects of G-3 exchange rate fluctuations on small open economies: A natural experiment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 253-273, September.

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