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External shocks, US monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in merging markets

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  • Maćkowiak, Bartosz

Abstract

Using structural VARs, I find that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy shocks affect quickly and strongly interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market. The price level and real output in a typical emerging market respond to U.S. monetary policy shocks by more than the price level and real output in the U.S. itself. These findings are consistent with the idea that when the U.S. sneezes, emerging markets catch a cold. At the same time, U.S. monetary policy shocks are not important for emerging markets relative to other kinds of external shocks.

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  • Maćkowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "External shocks, US monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in merging markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-026, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2006-026
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural vector autoregression; monetary policy shocks; international spillover effects of monetary policy; external shocks; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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