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Identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks in a small open economy

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  • Walter Enders
  • Stan Hurn

Abstract

The standard Blanchard-Quah (BQ) decomposition forces aggregate demand and supply shocks to be orthogonal. However, this assumption is problematic for a nation with an inflation target. The very notion of inflation targeting means that monetary policy reacts to changes in aggregate supply. This paper employs a modification of the BQ procedure that allows for correlated shifts in aggregate supply and demand. It is found that shocks to Australian aggregate demand and supply are highly correlated. The estimated shifts in the aggregate demand and supply curves are then used to measure the effects of inflation targeting on the Australian inflation rate and level of GDP. Copyright 2007 , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Enders & Stan Hurn, 2007. "Identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks in a small open economy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(3), pages 411-429, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:59:y:2007:i:3:p:411-429
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Anping & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2019. "China's ‘New Normal’: Is the growth slowdown demand- or supply-driven?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Barišić, Patrik & Kovač, Tibor & Arčabić, Vladimir, 2023. "More than just supply and demand: Macroeconomic shock decomposition in Croatia during and after the transition period," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 420-438.
    3. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Ashima Goyal & Sritama Ray, 2022. "Exploring correlations between aggregate demand and supply shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Adriana AnaMaria DAVIDESCU, 2014. "Evaluating The Relationship Between Official Economy And Shadow Economy In Romania. A Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 57-65, DECEMBER.
    6. M. Huchet & Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte, 2008. "Growing too fast? Shock asymmetries and the Euro area enlargement," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 51(1), pages 33-56.
    7. Chandranath Amarasekara & George J. Bratsiotis, 2012. "Monetary policy and real wage cyclicality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(33), pages 4391-4408, November.
    8. Lisa Aspalter, 2016. "Estimating Industry-level Armington Elasticities For EMU Countries," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp217, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    9. Souki, Kaouthar, 2008. "Assessing the effects of U.S. shocks on the Canadian economy using alternative identification methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 193-213, August.
    10. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.
    11. Ashima Goyal & Gagan Goel, 2021. "Correlated Shocks, Hysteresis, and the Sacrifice Ratio: Evidence from India," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2929-2945, August.
    12. Denis Larocque & Genevieve Lincourt & Michel Normandin, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Terrorist Shocks In Israel," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 317-336.
    13. Morakinyo Akinola & Muller Colette & Sibanda Mabutho, 2018. "Non-Performing Loans, Banking System and Macroeconomy," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 67-86, August.
    14. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2019. "The effects of China’s growth slowdown on its provinces: Disentangling the sources," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 1260-1279, December.
    15. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Papers 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain, 2018. "Contributions relatives des chocs de demande agrégée et d’offre agrégée aux fluctuations de la croissance réelle en zone CEMAC [Relative contributions of aggregate demand and supply shocks to busin," MPRA Paper 116376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Genberg, Hans & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Revisiting the shocking aspects of Asian monetary unification," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 445-455, October.
    18. Cover, James P. & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2012. "Identifying sources of macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations in the UK," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1627-1648.

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