IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v141y2019icp390-401.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model

Author

Listed:
  • de Jong, Pieter
  • Barreto, Tarssio B.
  • Tanajura, Clemente A.S.
  • Kouloukoui, Daniel
  • Oliveira-Esquerre, Karla P.
  • Kiperstok, Asher
  • Torres, Ednildo Andrade

Abstract

In the coming decades, higher temperatures, significantly reduced rainfall and changing wind speeds are projected for various semiarid regions due to Global Warming. Hydroelectric production in Brazil's São Francisco basin has already declined as a result of regional climate change, however less is known about the impacts on other renewable resources. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of climate change on Brazil's solar and wind energy resources. Data from three different downscaled global climate models is used to estimate the percentage changes in average solar radiation and wind speed by the 2030s and 2080s under high emissions scenarios in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. Results show that due to climate change, solar energy potential could increase slightly at solar power plant locations in the NE and Southeast regions. Wind energy potential is projected to increase substantially across most of Brazil and at some wind farm locations wind power generation could increase by more than 40%. Despite some inconsistencies between the long-term projections from the 3 different climate models, the results of this research are important in the context of regional climate change and renewable energy resource planning.

Suggested Citation

  • de Jong, Pieter & Barreto, Tarssio B. & Tanajura, Clemente A.S. & Kouloukoui, Daniel & Oliveira-Esquerre, Karla P. & Kiperstok, Asher & Torres, Ednildo Andrade, 2019. "Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 390-401.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:141:y:2019:i:c:p:390-401
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.03.086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014811930391X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2019.03.086?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Jong, Pieter & Dargaville, Roger & Silver, Jeremy & Utembe, Steven & Kiperstok, Asher & Torres, Ednildo Andrade, 2017. "Forecasting high proportions of wind energy supplying the Brazilian Northeast electricity grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 538-555.
    2. de Jong, Pieter & Kiperstok, Asher & Sánchez, Antonio Santos & Dargaville, Roger & Torres, Ednildo Andrade, 2016. "Integrating large scale wind power into the electricity grid in the Northeast of Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 401-415.
    3. Jose Marengo & Mauro Bernasconi, 2015. "Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 103-115, March.
    4. Pes, Marcelo P. & Pereira, Enio B. & Marengo, Jose A. & Martins, Fernando R. & Heinemann, Detlev & Schmidt, Michael, 2017. "Climate trends on the extreme winds in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 110-120.
    5. Bañuelos-Ruedas, F. & Angeles-Camacho, C. & Rios-Marcuello, S., 2010. "Analysis and validation of the methodology used in the extrapolation of wind speed data at different heights," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(8), pages 2383-2391, October.
    6. Ruffato-Ferreira, Vera & da Costa Barreto, Renata & Oscar Júnior, Antonio & Silva, Wanderson Luiz & de Berrêdo Viana, Daniel & do Nascimento, José Antonio Sena & de Freitas, Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos, 2017. "A foundation for the strategic long-term planning of the renewable energy sector in Brazil: Hydroelectricity and wind energy in the face of climate change scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1124-1137.
    7. Pereira, Enio B. & Martins, Fernando R. & Pes, Marcelo P. & da Cruz Segundo, Eliude I. & Lyra, André de A., 2013. "The impacts of global climate changes on the wind power density in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 107-110.
    8. Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Schaeffer, Roberto & Dutra, Ricardo Marques, 2010. "The vulnerability of wind power to climate change in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 904-912.
    9. Fant, Charles & Adam Schlosser, C. & Strzepek, Kenneth, 2016. "The impact of climate change on wind and solar resources in southern Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 556-564.
    10. Burnett, Dougal & Barbour, Edward & Harrison, Gareth P., 2014. "The UK solar energy resource and the impact of climate change," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 333-343.
    11. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & Silva Santos, C., 2017. "Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 29-40.
    12. Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares & Pupo Nogueira, Larissa Pinheiro & Fleming, Fernanda Pereira & Troccoli, Alberto & , 2012. "Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-12.
    13. Johnson, Dana L. & Erhardt, Robert J., 2016. "Projected impacts of climate change on wind energy density in the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 66-73.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcus Vinícius Coelho Vieira da Costa & Osmar Luiz Ferreira de Carvalho & Alex Gois Orlandi & Issao Hirata & Anesmar Olino de Albuquerque & Felipe Vilarinho e Silva & Renato Fontes Guimarães & Robert, 2021. "Remote Sensing for Monitoring Photovoltaic Solar Plants in Brazil Using Deep Semantic Segmentation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Aissatou Ndiaye & Mounkaila Saley Moussa & Cheikh Dione & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Jan Bliefernicht & Laouali Dungall & Harald Kunstmann, 2022. "Projected Changes in Solar PV and Wind Energy Potential over West Africa: An Analysis of CORDEX-CORE Simulations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    4. Zuluaga, Cristian Felipe & Avila-Diaz, Alvaro & Justino, Flavio B. & Martins, Fernando Ramos & Ceron, Wilmar L., 2022. "The climate change perspective of photovoltaic power potential in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 1019-1031.
    5. Ferraz de Andrade Santos, José Alexandre & de Jong, Pieter & Alves da Costa, Caiuby & Torres, Ednildo Andrade, 2020. "Combining wind and solar energy sources: Potential for hybrid power generation in Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Liu, Jing-Yue & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2021. "Has carbon emissions trading system promoted non-fossil energy development in China?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    7. de Jong, Pieter & Barreto, Tarssio B. & Tanajura, Clemente A.S. & Oliveira-Esquerre, Karla P. & Kiperstok, Asher & Andrade Torres, Ednildo, 2021. "The Impact of Regional Climate Change on Hydroelectric Resources in South America," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 76-91.
    8. Nagababu, Garlapati & Srinivas, Bhasuru Abhinaya & Kachhwaha, Surendra Singh & Puppala, Harish & Kumar, Surisetty V.V.Arun, 2023. "Can offshore wind energy help to attain carbon neutrality amid climate change? A GIS-MCDM based analysis to unravel the facts using CORDEX-SA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    9. Zhao, Xiaohu & Huang, Guohe & Lu, Chen & Zhou, Xiong & Li, Yongping, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    10. Sijia Wang & Xiangyu Wu & Gang Chen & Yin Xu, 2020. "Small-Signal Stability Analysis of Photovoltaic-Hydro Integrated Systems on Ultra-Low Frequency Oscillation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, February.
    11. Paula Donaduzzi Rigo & Carmen Brum Rosa & Graciele Rediske & Julio Cezar Mairesse Siluk & Leandro Michels, 2022. "A Software Application to Support Decision-making in Small-scale Photovoltaic Projects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 32-39.
    12. Aquila, Giancarlo & Nakamura, Wilson Toshiro & Junior, Paulo Rotella & Souza Rocha, Luiz Celio & de Oliveira Pamplona, Edson, 2021. "Perspectives under uncertainties and risk in wind farms investments based on Omega-LCOE approach: An analysis in São Paulo state, Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. He, J.Y. & Chan, P.W. & Li, Q.S. & Tong, H.W., 2023. "Mapping future offshore wind resources in the South China Sea under climate change by regional climate modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    14. Tolga Kara & Ahmet Duran Şahin, 2023. "Implications of Climate Change on Wind Energy Potential," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Viviescas, Cindy & Lima, Lucas & Diuana, Fabio A. & Vasquez, Eveline & Ludovique, Camila & Silva, Gabriela N. & Huback, Vanessa & Magalar, Leticia & Szklo, Alexandre & Lucena, André F.P. & Schaeffer, , 2019. "Contribution of Variable Renewable Energy to increase energy security in Latin America: Complementarity and climate change impacts on wind and solar resources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Suomalainen, Kiti & Wen, Le & Sheng, Mingyue Selena & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "Climate change impact on the cost of decarbonisation in a hydro-based power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    3. Zhang, Shuangyi & Li, Xichen, 2021. "Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2019. "Assessing the effect of transmission constraints on wind power expansion in northeast Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Tolga Kara & Ahmet Duran Şahin, 2023. "Implications of Climate Change on Wind Energy Potential," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.
    6. Wang, Bing & Ke, Ruo-Yu & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2014. "China׳s regional assessment of renewable energy vulnerability to climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-195.
    7. Lucena, André F.P. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline & Turner, Sean & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Kober, Tom & Cai, Yongxia & Beach, Robert H. & Gernaat,, 2018. "Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1161-1177.
    8. Ignacio Losada Carreño & Michael T. Craig & Michael Rossol & Moetasim Ashfaq & Fulden Batibeniz & Sue Ellen Haupt & Caroline Draxl & Bri-Mathias Hodge & Carlo Brancucci, 2020. "Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 745-766, November.
    9. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    10. Pérez, Juan C. & González, Albano & Díaz, Juan P. & Expósito, Francisco J. & Felipe, Jonatan, 2019. "Climate change impact on future photovoltaic resource potential in an orographically complex archipelago, the Canary Islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 749-759.
    11. de Jong, Pieter & Barreto, Tarssio B. & Tanajura, Clemente A.S. & Oliveira-Esquerre, Karla P. & Kiperstok, Asher & Andrade Torres, Ednildo, 2021. "The Impact of Regional Climate Change on Hydroelectric Resources in South America," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 76-91.
    12. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    13. de Jong, Pieter & Dargaville, Roger & Silver, Jeremy & Utembe, Steven & Kiperstok, Asher & Torres, Ednildo Andrade, 2017. "Forecasting high proportions of wind energy supplying the Brazilian Northeast electricity grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 538-555.
    14. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2020. "Benefits from energy policy synchronisation of Brazil’s North-Northeast interconnection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 427-437.
    15. Zhuo Chen & Wei Li & Junhong Guo & Zhe Bao & Zhangrong Pan & Baodeng Hou, 2020. "Projection of Wind Energy Potential over Northern China Using a Regional Climate Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-16, May.
    16. He, J.Y. & Li, Q.S. & Chan, P.W. & Zhao, X.D., 2023. "Assessment of future wind resources under climate change using a multi-model and multi-method ensemble approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    17. Santos, Maria João & Ferreira, Paula & Araújo, Madalena, 2016. "A methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1400-1411.
    18. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Amorim, Filipa & Siggini, Gildas & Sessa, Valentina & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Carvalho, Sílvia & Mujtaba, Babar & Diogo, Paulo & Assoumou, Edi, 2022. "How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    19. Martinez, A. & Iglesias, G., 2024. "Global wind energy resources decline under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    20. Juárez, Alberto Aquino & Araújo, Alex Maurício & Rohatgi, Janardan Singh & de Oliveira Filho, Oyama Douglas Queiroz, 2014. "Development of the wind power in Brazil: Political, social and technical issues," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 828-834.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:141:y:2019:i:c:p:390-401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.