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What can reanalysis data tell us about wind power?

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  • Rose, Stephen
  • Apt, Jay

Abstract

Reanalysis data sets have become a popular data source for large-scale wind power analyses because they cover large areas and long time spans, but those data are uncertain representations of “true” wind speeds. In this work we develop a model that systematically quantifies the uncertainties across many sites and corrects for biases of the reanalysis data. We apply this model to 32 years of reanalysis data for 1002 plausible wind-plant sites in the U.S. Great Plains to estimate variability of wind energy generation and the smoothing effect of aggregating distant wind plants. We find the coefficient of variation (COV) of annual energy generation of individual wind plants in the Great Plains is 5–12%, but the COV of all those plants aggregated together is 3.0%. The year-to-year variability (of interest to system planners) shows a maximum step change of ∼10%, and the wind power varies by ±7.5% over a 32-year period. Similarly, the average variability of quarterly cash flow to equity investors in a single wind plant is 29%, but that can be reduced to 18–21% by creating small portfolios of two wind plants selected from regions with low correlations of wind speed.

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  • Rose, Stephen & Apt, Jay, 2015. "What can reanalysis data tell us about wind power?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 963-969.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:83:y:2015:i:c:p:963-969
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2015.05.027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    15. Frank, Christopher W. & Pospichal, Bernhard & Wahl, Sabrina & Keller, Jan D. & Hense, Andreas & Crewell, Susanne, 2020. "The added value of high resolution regional reanalyses for wind power applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1094-1109.
    16. Shahriari, Mehdi & Blumsack, Seth, 2018. "The capacity value of optimal wind and solar portfolios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 992-1005.
    17. Pedruzzi, Rizzieri & Silva, Allan Rodrigues & Soares dos Santos, Thalyta & Araujo, Allan Cavalcante & Cotta Weyll, Arthur Lúcide & Lago Kitagawa, Yasmin Kaore & Nunes da Silva Ramos, Diogo & Milani de, 2023. "Review of mapping analysis and complementarity between solar and wind energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    18. Rose, Stephen & Apt, Jay, 2016. "Quantifying sources of uncertainty in reanalysis derived wind speed," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 157-165.
    19. Santos, F. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & deCastro, M. & Añel, J.A. & Carvalho, D. & Costoya, Xurxo & Dias, J.M., 2018. "On the accuracy of CORDEX RCMs to project future winds over the Iberian Peninsula and surrounding ocean," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 289-300.
    20. Ren, Guorui & Wan, Jie & Liu, Jinfu & Yu, Daren, 2019. "Characterization of wind resource in China from a new perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 994-1010.
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    22. Rabbani, R. & Zeeshan, M., 2020. "Exploring the suitability of MERRA-2 reanalysis data for wind energy estimation, analysis of wind characteristics and energy potential assessment for selected sites in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1240-1251.
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    24. Hain, Martin & Kargus, Tobias & Schermeyer, Hans & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Fichtner, Wolf, 2022. "An electricity price modeling framework for renewable-dominant markets," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 66, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).

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