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Uncertainty estimation of investment planning models under high shares of renewables using reanalysis data

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  • Henckes, Philipp
  • Frank, Christopher
  • Küchler, Nils
  • Peter, Jakob
  • Wagner, Johannes

Abstract

Variable renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, increasingly affects present and future energy systems. Reanalysis products are often used as a meteorological basis for subsequent energy system studies under high shares of variable renewable energy. Since reanalyses contain considerable biases, it is ex-ante unclear how they impact the results of energy system models. For that purpose, this study applies the high resolution reanalysis data set (6 km grid) to a full model chain, from the meteorological basis via power conversion to the optimal electricity system investment and dispatch, and investigates the implications of initial errors. It is shown that power conversion as well as electricity system model results are highly sensitive to these errors associated with the meteorological input data, in particular under high shares of variable renewable energy. The initial errors are observed to propagate through the model chain with at least the same magnitudes, which leads to distinct impacts on the overall configuration of the German electricity system as well as allocation effects of variable renewable energy capacities.

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  • Henckes, Philipp & Frank, Christopher & Küchler, Nils & Peter, Jakob & Wagner, Johannes, 2020. "Uncertainty estimation of investment planning models under high shares of renewables using reanalysis data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:208:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220313141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118207
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    Cited by:

    1. Gruber, Katharina & Regner, Peter & Wehrle, Sebastian & Zeyringer, Marianne & Schmidt, Johannes, 2022. "Towards global validation of wind power simulations: A multi-country assessment of wind power simulation from MERRA-2 and ERA-5 reanalyses bias-corrected with the global wind atlas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    2. Olave-Rojas, David & Álvarez-Miranda, Eduardo, 2021. "Towards a complex investment evaluation framework for renewable energy systems: A 2-level heuristic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    3. Scott, Ian J. & Carvalho, Pedro M.S. & Botterud, Audun & Silva, Carlos A., 2021. "Long-term uncertainties in generation expansion planning: Implications for electricity market modelling and policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    4. Muñoz Ortiz, Miguel & Kvalbein, Lisa & Hellemo, Lars, 2021. "Evaluation of open photovoltaic and wind production time series for Norwegian locations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

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