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Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Nadia Politi

    (Environmental Research Laboratory, NCSR “Demokritos”, 15341 Agia Paraskevi, Greece)

  • Diamando Vlachogiannis

    (Environmental Research Laboratory, NCSR “Demokritos”, 15341 Agia Paraskevi, Greece)

  • Athanasios Sfetsos

    (Environmental Research Laboratory, NCSR “Demokritos”, 15341 Agia Paraskevi, Greece)

  • Nikolaos Gounaris

    (Environmental Research Laboratory, NCSR “Demokritos”, 15341 Agia Paraskevi, Greece)

  • Vassiliki Varela

    (Environmental Research Laboratory, NCSR “Demokritos”, 15341 Agia Paraskevi, Greece)

Abstract

Future fire weather conditions under climate change were investigated based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and threshold-specific indicators in Greece. The indices were calculated from climate datasets derived from high-resolution validated simulations of 5 km. The dynamical downscaled simulations with the WRF model were driven by EC-Earth output for historical (1980–2004) and future periods, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and 8.5. The analysis showed that the FWI is expected to increase substantially, particularly in the southern parts with extreme values found above 100. In addition, the number of days with an FWI above the 90th percentile is projected to increase considerably (above 30 days), under both scenarios. Over the eastern and northern mainland, the increase is estimated with more than 70 days under RCP4.5, in the near future (2025–2049). Moreover, central and north-eastern parts of the country will be affected with 30 or more extreme consecutive days of prolonged fire weather, under RCP4.5, in the near future and under RCP8.5 in the far future (2075–2099). Finally, the expected rate of fire spread is more spatially extended all over the country and particularly from southern to northern parts compared to the historical state.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadia Politi & Diamando Vlachogiannis & Athanasios Sfetsos & Nikolaos Gounaris & Vassiliki Varela, 2023. "Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-15, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:3:p:2498-:d:1051724
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    2. Chrysostomos Psaroudakis & Gavriil Xanthopoulos & Dimitris Stavrakoudis & Antonios Barnias & Vassiliki Varela & Ilias Gkotsis & Anna Karvouniari & Spyridon Agorgianitis & Ioannis Chasiotis & Diamando , 2021. "Development of an Early Warning and Incident Response System for the Protection of Visitors from Natural Hazards in Important Outdoor Sites in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-29, May.
    3. Vassiliki Varela & Diamando Vlachogiannis & Athanasios Sfetsos & Stelios Karozis & Nadia Politi & Frédérique Giroud, 2019. "Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-13, August.
    4. Olga M. Lozano & Michele Salis & Alan A. Ager & Bachisio Arca & Fermin J. Alcasena & Antonio T. Monteiro & Mark A. Finney & Liliana Del Giudice & Enrico Scoccimarro & Donatella Spano, 2017. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1898-1916, October.
    5. Ioannis Mitsopoulos & Giorgos Mallinis, 2017. "A data-driven approach to assess large fire size generation in Greece," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1591-1607, September.
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