IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v169y2021icp512-526.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of potential changes in the Black Sea wave power for the 21st century

Author

Listed:
  • Aydoğan, Burak
  • Görmüş, Tahsin
  • Ayat, Berna
  • Çarpar, Tunay

Abstract

This study aims to project wave power variations in the Black Sea throughout the 21st century. A spectral wave modeling study is done using the open-source software SWAN. Wind fields were downscaled with a two-layered system where the first layer is a radial basis function, and the second layer is a generalized linear model. Two representative pathways and two different global circulations models were considered. Mean wave power in the basin fluctuates around 4 kW/m and associated maximum wave powers in the basin could even reach 20 kW/m, mostly accounted for the winter season and the Western part of the basin. Although both increasing and decreasing wave power areas exist in the basin for different models and representative concentration pathways scenarios, future projections showed no distinguishable change in the spatial distribution of the wave power. At the end of the century, basin-averaged differences for the historical period are ranging between +0.14 kW/m and −0.32 kW/m. Seasonal variability is shown to be high. Spring has the biggest change in the basin-averaged wave power with a decrease of up to 20% considering all models and scenarios. Inter-annual variability is greater for the Climate Model Version 3 model.

Suggested Citation

  • Aydoğan, Burak & Görmüş, Tahsin & Ayat, Berna & Çarpar, Tunay, 2021. "Analysis of potential changes in the Black Sea wave power for the 21st century," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 512-526.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:169:y:2021:i:c:p:512-526
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.01.042
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148121000483
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2021.01.042?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sierra, J.P. & Casas-Prat, M. & Campins, E., 2017. "Impact of climate change on wave energy resource: The case of Menorca (Spain)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 275-285.
    2. Aydoğan, Burak & Ayat, Berna & Yüksel, Yalçın, 2013. "Black Sea wave energy atlas from 13 years hindcasted wave data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 436-447.
    3. Rusu, Liliana, 2020. "A projection of the expected wave power in the Black Sea until the end of the 21st century," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 136-147.
    4. Iglesias, G. & López, M. & Carballo, R. & Castro, A. & Fraguela, J.A. & Frigaard, P., 2009. "Wave energy potential in Galicia (NW Spain)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2323-2333.
    5. López, Iraide & Andreu, Jon & Ceballos, Salvador & Martínez de Alegría, Iñigo & Kortabarria, Iñigo, 2013. "Review of wave energy technologies and the necessary power-equipment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 413-434.
    6. Adem Akpınar & Bilal Bingölbali, 2016. "Long-term variations of wind and wave conditions in the coastal regions of the Black Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 69-92, October.
    7. Bingölbali, Bilal & Jafali, Halid & Akpınar, Adem & Bekiroğlu, Serkan, 2020. "Wave energy potential and variability for the south west coasts of the Black Sea: The WEB-based wave energy atlas," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 136-150.
    8. Mark A. Hemer & Yalin Fan & Nobuhito Mori & Alvaro Semedo & Xiaolan L. Wang, 2013. "Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 471-476, May.
    9. Rusu, Eugen, 2019. "A 30-year projection of the future wind energy resources in the coastal environment of the Black Sea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 228-234.
    10. Liliana Rusu, 2015. "Assessment of the Wave Energy in the Black Sea Based on a 15-Year Hindcast with Data Assimilation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-19, September.
    11. Rusu, Liliana, 2019. "Evaluation of the near future wave energy resources in the Black Sea under two climate scenarios," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 137-146.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. deCastro, M. & Rusu, L. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2024. "Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Şan, Murat & Akpınar, Adem & Bingölbali, Bilal & Kankal, Murat, 2021. "Geo-spatial multi-criteria evaluation of wave energy exploitation in a semi-enclosed sea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    2. Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A.S. & Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2023. "Suitability of wave energy converters in northwestern Spain under the near future winter wave climate," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    3. Kamranzad, Bahareh & Takara, Kaoru, 2020. "A climate-dependent sustainability index for wave energy resources in Northeast Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    4. deCastro, M. & Rusu, L. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2024. "Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Kamranzad, Bahareh & Lin, Pengzhi & Iglesias, Gregorio, 2021. "Combining methodologies on the impact of inter and intra-annual variation of wave energy on selection of suitable location and technology," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 697-713.
    6. Bingölbali, Bilal & Majidi, Ajab Gul & Akpınar, Adem, 2021. "Inter- and intra-annual wave energy resource assessment in the south-western Black Sea coast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 809-819.
    7. Liliana Rusu & Eugen Rusu, 2021. "Evaluation of the Worldwide Wave Energy Distribution Based on ERA5 Data and Altimeter Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-16, January.
    8. Harshinie Karunarathna & Pravin Maduwantha & Bahareh Kamranzad & Harsha Rathnasooriya & Kasun De Silva, 2020. "Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Future Ocean Wave Power Potential: A Case Study from the Indian Ocean," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    9. Ribeiro, A.S. & deCastro, M. & Costoya, X. & Rusu, Liliana & Dias, J.M. & Gomez-Gesteira, M., 2021. "A Delphi method to classify wave energy resource for the 21st century: Application to the NW Iberian Peninsula," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    10. Joan Pau Sierra & Ricard Castrillo & Marc Mestres & César Mösso & Piero Lionello & Luigi Marzo, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Wave Energy Resource in the Mediterranean Coast of Morocco," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    11. Mustapa, M.A. & Yaakob, O.B. & Ahmed, Yasser M. & Rheem, Chang-Kyu & Koh, K.K. & Adnan, Faizul Amri, 2017. "Wave energy device and breakwater integration: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 43-58.
    12. Kasiulis, Egidijus & Punys, Petras & Kofoed, Jens Peter, 2015. "Assessment of theoretical near-shore wave power potential along the Lithuanian coast of the Baltic Sea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 134-142.
    13. Américo S. Ribeiro & Maite deCastro & Liliana Rusu & Mariana Bernardino & João M. Dias & Moncho Gomez-Gesteira, 2020. "Evaluating the Future Efficiency of Wave Energy Converters along the NW Coast of the Iberian Peninsula," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-15, July.
    14. Soomere, Tarmo & Eelsalu, Maris, 2014. "On the wave energy potential along the eastern Baltic Sea coast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 221-233.
    15. Delpey, Matthias & Lastiri, Ximun & Abadie, Stéphane & Roeber, Volker & Maron, Philippe & Liria, Pedro & Mader, Julien, 2021. "Characterization of the wave resource variability in the French Basque coastal area based on a high-resolution hindcast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 79-95.
    16. Liu, Jin & Li, Rui & Li, Shuo & Meucci, Alberto & Young, Ian R., 2024. "Increasing wave power due to global climate change and intensification of Antarctic Oscillation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    17. Rusu, Liliana, 2019. "Evaluation of the near future wave energy resources in the Black Sea under two climate scenarios," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 137-146.
    18. Astariz, S. & Iglesias, G., 2015. "The economics of wave energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 397-408.
    19. Wanan Sheng & Hui Li & Jimmy Murphy, 2017. "An Improved Method for Energy and Resource Assessment of Waves in Finite Water Depths," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, August.
    20. Liu, Jin & Meucci, Alberto & Liu, Qingxiang & Babanin, Alexander V. & Ierodiaconou, Daniel & Xu, Xingkun & Young, Ian R., 2023. "A high-resolution wave energy assessment of south-east Australia based on a 40-year hindcast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:169:y:2021:i:c:p:512-526. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.