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A method for estimating casualties due to the tsunami inundation flow

Author

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  • Shunichi Koshimura
  • Toshitaka Katada
  • Harold Mofjeld
  • Yoshiaki Kawata

Abstract

This study develops a method for estimating the number of casualties that may occur while people evacuate from an inundation zone when a tsunami has inundated an area. The method is based on a simple model of hydrodynamic forces as they affect the human body. The method uses a Tsunami casualty index (TCI) computed at each grid point of a numerical tsunami model to determine locations and times within the tsunami inundation zone where evacuation during the tsunami inundation is not possible and therefore where casualties are likely to occur. The locations and times can be combined with information about population density to compute the potential number of casualties. This information is useful in developing tsunami evacuation routes that avoid such locations. To illustrate the method, it is applied to the Seattle waterfront in Washington State, USA, that is under the threat of possible tsunami disasters due to Seattle Fault earthquakes. Preliminary results suggest that the tsunami casualties may occur within the Seattle waterfront for 15 min, during the time interval from 3 to 18 min after a large Seattle Fault tsunami is generated when the background tide level is mean high water. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Shunichi Koshimura & Toshitaka Katada & Harold Mofjeld & Yoshiaki Kawata, 2006. "A method for estimating casualties due to the tsunami inundation flow," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 39(2), pages 265-274, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:39:y:2006:i:2:p:265-274
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-0027-5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alireza Mostafizi & Haizhong Wang & Dan Cox & Lori A. Cramer & Shangjia Dong, 2017. "Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1347-1372, September.
    2. Tongyan Zheng & Lei Li & Chong Xu & Yuandong Huang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Earthquake Distribution and Associated Losses in Chinese Mainland from 1949 to 2021," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Jonkman, S.N. & Lentz, A. & Vrijling, J.K., 2010. "A general approach for the estimation of loss of life due to natural and technological disasters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1123-1133.
    4. S. Turkan & G. Özel, 2014. "Modeling destructive earthquake casualties based on a comparative study for Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 1093-1110, June.
    5. S. Jonkman & J. Vrijling & A. Vrouwenvelder, 2008. "Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 353-389, September.
    6. Yingchun Li & Zhongliang Wu & Yizhe Zhao, 2011. "Estimating the number of casualties in earthquakes from early field reports and improving the estimate with time," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 699-708, March.

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