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A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Zhenqiang Wang

    (Colorado State University)

  • Gaofeng Jia

    (Colorado State University)

Abstract

Tsunami evacuation is an effective way to save lives from the near-field tsunami. Realistic evacuation simulation can provide valuable information for accurate evacuation risk assessment and effective evacuation planning. Agent-based modeling is ideal for tsunami evacuation simulation due to its capability of capturing the emergent phenomena and modeling the individual-level interactions among agents and the agents’ interactions with the environment. However, existing models usually neglect or simplify some important factors and/or mechanisms in tsunami evacuation. For example, uncertainties in seismic damages to the transportation network are not probabilistically considered (e.g., by simply removing the damaged links (roads/bridges) from the network). Typically a relatively small population (i.e., evacuees) is considered (due to computational challenges) while neglecting population mobility. These simplifications may lead to inaccurate estimation of evacuation risk. Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g., on foot and by car) are not considered concurrently. Also, pedestrian–vehicle interaction is usually neglected in the multi-modal evacuation. To address the above limitations, this study proposes a novel and more realistic agent-based tsunami evacuation model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment. Uncertainties in seismic damages to all links in the transportation network as well as uncertainties in other evacuation parameters are explicitly modeled and considered. A novel and more realistic multi-modal evacuation model is proposed that explicitly considers the pedestrian–vehicle interaction, walking speed variability, and speed adjustment for both the pedestrian and car according to traffic density. In addition, several different population sizes are used to model population mobility and its impact on tsunami evacuation risk. The proposed model is applied within a simulation-based framework to assess the tsunami evacuation risk assessment for Seaside, Oregon.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenqiang Wang & Gaofeng Jia, 2021. "A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 2045-2071, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:105:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04389-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04389-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George Priest & Laura Stimely & Nathan Wood & Ian Madin & Rudie Watzig, 2016. "Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1031-1056, January.
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    6. Nathan Wood & Mathew Schmidtlein, 2012. "Anisotropic path modeling to assess pedestrian-evacuation potential from Cascadia-related tsunamis in the US Pacific Northwest," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 275-300, June.
    7. Alireza Mostafizi & Haizhong Wang & Dan Cox & Lori A. Cramer & Shangjia Dong, 2017. "Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1347-1372, September.
    8. Gaofeng Jia & Alexandros A. Taflanidis & Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo & Jeffrey A. Melby & Andrew B. Kennedy & Jane M. Smith, 2016. "Surrogate modeling for peak or time-dependent storm surge prediction over an extended coastal region using an existing database of synthetic storms," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 909-938, March.
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    2. Chaofeng Liu & Sijia Liu & Jiaxin Zhang & Ling Wang & Xiaodong Guo & Gang Li & Wei Wang, 2023. "An optimal design method of emergency evacuation space in the high-density community after earthquake based on evacuation simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 2889-2915, April.
    3. Gabriel Ovando-Leon & Luis Veas-Castillo & Veronica Gil-Costa & Mauricio Marin, 2022. "Bot-Based Emergency Software Applications for Natural Disaster Situations," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, March.
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