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Quantifying future changes of flood hazards within the Broadland catchment in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Ross Gudde

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Yi He

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Ulysse Pasquier

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Nicole Forstenhäusler

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Ciar Noble

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Qianyu Zha

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

Flooding represents the greatest natural threat to the UK, presenting severe risk to populations along coastlines and floodplains through extreme tidal surge and hydrometeorological events. Climate change is projected to significantly elevate flood risk through increased severity and frequency of occurrences, which will be exacerbated by external drivers of risk such as property development and population growth throughout floodplains. This investigation explores the entire flood hazard modelling chain, utilising the nonparametric bias correction of UKCP18 regional climate projections, the distributed HBV-TYN hydrological model and HEC-RAS hydraulic model to assess future manifestation of flood hazard within the Broadland Catchment, UK. When assessing the independent impact of extreme river discharge and storm surge events as well as the impact of a compound event of the two along a high emission scenario, exponential increases in hazard extent over time were observed. The flood extent increases from 197 km2 in 1990 to 200 km2 in 2030, and 208 km2 in 2070. In parallel, exponential population exposure increases were found from 13,917 (1990) to 14,088 (2030) to 18,785 (2070). This methodology could see integration into policy-based flood risk management by use of the developed hazard modelling tool for future planning and suitability of existing infrastructure at a catchment scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross Gudde & Yi He & Ulysse Pasquier & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Ciar Noble & Qianyu Zha, 2024. "Quantifying future changes of flood hazards within the Broadland catchment in the UK," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(11), pages 9893-9915, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06590-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06590-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Jonkman & J. Vrijling & A. Vrouwenvelder, 2008. "Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 353-389, September.
    2. Thomas Wahl & Shaleen Jain & Jens Bender & Steven D. Meyers & Mark E. Luther, 2015. "Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1093-1097, December.
    3. Thomas Spencer & Susan M. Brooks & Iris Möller, 2014. "Storm-surge impact depends on setting," Nature, Nature, vol. 505(7481), pages 26-26, January.
    4. Zhiqiang Yin & Yixin Hu & Katie Jenkins & Yi He & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Rachel Warren & Lili Yang & Rhosanna Jenkins & Dabo Guan, 2021. "Assessing the economic impacts of future fluvial flooding in six countries under climate change and socio-economic development," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-21, June.
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    Keywords

    Flood; Risk; Hazard; Exposure; Climate;
    All these keywords.

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