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Loss of Life Estimation Due to Flash Floods in Residential Areas using a Regional Model

Author

Listed:
  • Mehdi Karbasi

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Alireza Shokoohi

    (Imam Khomeini International University)

  • Bahram Saghafian

    (Islamic Azad University)

Abstract

Flood is a severe natural disaster which causes major damages in most regions including in Iran. Loss of human lives as a consequence of flash flood has not been sufficiently studied despite its high annual rate. Review of related literature indicates relatively low accuracy of available global relationships for estimating loss of life due to flash floods. As a result, regional equations dealing with loss of life estimation relying on all effective hydraulic and evacuation variables is a way forward. In this study, hydraulic variables, such as depth, velocity and rise rate, and evacuation parameters, including available time for evacuation and fraction of people evacuated, were adopted to develop a regional loss of life equation in residential areas of Kan watershed case study, Tehran, Iran, using a calibrated 2DHEC-RAS model. Different number of fatalities in downstream and upstream villages revealed the importance of evacuation time when an early flood warning system is operational. Comparison of the proposed regional equation with available global equations showed that the proposed equation provides more accurate estimation of the number of fatalities in the study area. Regarding the estimated mortality, a local sensitivity analysis performed on the developed equation showed the importance of flood depth to evacuation time ratio, water rising rate and flow velocity, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehdi Karbasi & Alireza Shokoohi & Bahram Saghafian, 2018. "Loss of Life Estimation Due to Flash Floods in Residential Areas using a Regional Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(14), pages 4575-4589, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-018-2071-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2071-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manuela Mauro & Karin Bruijn & Matteo Meloni, 2012. "Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss-of-life estimation in the assessment of flood risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 1083-1113, September.
    2. S. Jonkman & J. Vrijling & A. Vrouwenvelder, 2008. "Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 353-389, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guangzhao Chen & Jingming Hou & Yuan Hu & Tian Wang & Shaoxiong Yang & Xujun Gao, 2023. "Simulated Investigation on the Impact of Spatial–temporal Variability of Rainstorms on Flash Flood Discharge Process in Small Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 995-1011, February.
    2. Wenlin Yuan & Lei Fu & Qianyu Gao & Fang Wan, 2019. "Comprehensive Assessment and Rechecking of Rainfall Threshold for Flash Floods Based on the Disaster Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3547-3562, August.
    3. Saritha Padiyedath Gopalan & Akira Kawamura & Hideo Amaguchi & Gubash Azhikodan, 2020. "A Generalized Storage Function Model for the Water Level Estimation Using Rating Curve Relationship," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2603-2619, June.

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