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A comparison of models for measurable deterioration: An application to coatings on steel structures

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  • Nicolai, Robin P.
  • Dekker, Rommert
  • van Noortwijk, Jan M.

Abstract

Steel structures like bridges, tanks and pylons are exposed to outdoor weathering conditions. In order to prevent them from corrosion they are protected by organic coating systems. This paper focuses on modelling the deterioration of the organic coating layer that protects steel structures from corrosion. Only if there is sufficient knowledge of the condition of the coating on these structures, maintenance actions can be done in the most efficient way. Therefore the course of the deterioration of the coating system and its lifetime, which is also of importance for doing maintenance, have to be assessed accurately. In this paper, three different stochastic processes, viz. Brownian motion with non-linear drift, the non-stationary gamma process and a two-stage hit-and-grow physical process, are fitted to two real data sets. In this way we are the first who compare the three stochastic processes empirically on criteria such as goodness-of-fit, computational convenience and ease of implementation. The first data set is based on expert judgement; the second consists of inspection results. In the first case the model parameters are obtained by a least-squares approach, in the second case by the method of maximum likelihood. A meta-analysis is performed on the two-stage hit-and-grow model by means of fitting Brownian motion and gamma process to the outcomes of this model.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolai, Robin P. & Dekker, Rommert & van Noortwijk, Jan M., 2007. "A comparison of models for measurable deterioration: An application to coatings on steel structures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 1635-1650.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:92:y:2007:i:12:p:1635-1650
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. W Wang & P A Scarf & M A J Smith, 2000. "On the application of a model of condition-based maintenance," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(11), pages 1218-1227, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. M D Pandey & T Cheng & J A M van der Weide, 2011. "Finite-time maintenance cost analysis of engineering systems affected by stochastic degradation," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 225(2), pages 241-250, June.
    2. Guida, M. & Postiglione, F. & Pulcini, G., 2012. "A time-discrete extended gamma process for time-dependent degradation phenomena," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 73-79.
    3. Thomas Michael Welte & Iver Bakken Sperstad & Espen Høegh Sørum & Magne Lorentzen Kolstad, 2017. "Integration of Degradation Processes in a Strategic Offshore Wind Farm O&M Simulation Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, July.
    4. de Jonge, Bram & Teunter, Ruud & Tinga, Tiedo, 2017. "The influence of practical factors on the benefits of condition-based maintenance over time-based maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 21-30.
    5. van Noortwijk, J.M. & van der Weide, J.A.M., 2008. "Applications to continuous-time processes of computational techniques for discrete-time renewal processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(12), pages 1853-1860.
    6. Baussaron, Julien & Mihaela, Barreau & Léo, Gerville-Réache & Fabrice, Guérin & Paul, Schimmerling, 2014. "Reliability assessment based on degradation measurements: How to compare some models?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 236-241.
    7. Kuniewski, Sebastian P. & van der Weide, Johannes A.M. & van Noortwijk, Jan M., 2009. "Sampling inspection for the evaluation of time-dependent reliability of deteriorating systems under imperfect defect detection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(9), pages 1480-1490.
    8. Nicolai, R.P. & Frenk, J.B.G. & Dekker, R., 2007. "Modelling and Optimizing Imperfect Maintenance of Coatings on Steel Structures," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-043-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    9. Zheng, Rui & Chen, Bingkun & Gu, Liudong, 2020. "Condition-based maintenance with dynamic thresholds for a system using the proportional hazards model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    10. Alaa H. Elwany & Nagi Z. Gebraeel & Lisa M. Maillart, 2011. "Structured Replacement Policies for Components with Complex Degradation Processes and Dedicated Sensors," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 684-695, June.
    11. Nicolai, R.P. & Koning, A.J., 2006. "A general framework for statistical inference on discrete event systems," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-45, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    12. Momber, Andreas W. & Nattkemper, Tim W. & Langenkämper, Daniel & Möller, Torben & Brün, Daniel & Schaumann, Peter & Shojai, Sulaiman, 2022. "A data-based model for condition monitoring and maintenance planning for protective coating systems for wind tower structures," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 957-973.
    13. Cheng, Tianjin & Pandey, Mahesh D. & van der Weide, J.A.M., 2012. "The probability distribution of maintenance cost of a system affected by the gamma process of degradation: Finite time solution," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 65-76.
    14. C Meier-Hirmer & G Riboulet & F Sourget & M Roussignol, 2009. "Maintenance optimization for a system with a gamma deterioration process and intervention delay: Application to track maintenance," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 223(3), pages 189-198, September.
    15. Cárdenas-Gallo, Iván & Sarmiento, Carlos A. & Morales, Gilberto A. & Bolivar, Manuel A. & Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Raha, 2017. "An ensemble classifier to predict track geometry degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 53-60.
    16. Savage, Gordon J. & Kap Son, Young, 2011. "The set-theory method for systems reliability of structures with degrading components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 108-116.
    17. Calvert, Gareth & Neves, Luis & Andrews, John & Hamer, Matthew, 2020. "Multi-defect modelling of bridge deterioration using truncated inspection records," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    18. Boutros El Hajj & Bruno Castanier & Franck Schoefs & Thomas Yeung, 2016. "A risk-oriented degradation model for maintenance of reinforced concrete structure subjected to cracking," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(5), pages 521-530, October.
    19. Zhang, Zhengxin & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Lei, Yaguo, 2018. "Degradation data analysis and remaining useful life estimation: A review on Wiener-process-based methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 775-796.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deterioration modelling; Stochastic processes; Brownian motion; Gamma process; Physical process; Maintenance; Estimation; Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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