IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v212y2021ics0951832021001770.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty quantification for Multiphase-CFD simulations of bubbly flows: a machine learning-based Bayesian approach supported by high-resolution experiments

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Yang
  • Wang, Dewei
  • Sun, Xiaodong
  • Liu, Yang
  • Dinh, Nam
  • Hu, Rui

Abstract

In this paper, we developed a machine learning-based Bayesian approach to inversely quantify and reduce the uncertainties of multiphase computational fluid dynamics (MCFD) simulations for bubbly flows. The proposed approach is supported by high-resolution two-phase flow measurements, including those by double-sensor conductivity probes, high-speed imaging, and particle image velocimetry. Local distributions of key physical quantities of interest (QoIs), including the void fraction and phasic velocities, are obtained to support the Bayesian inference. In the process, the epistemic uncertainties of the closure relations are inversely quantified while the aleatory uncertainties from stochastic fluctuations of the system are evaluated based on experimental uncertainty analysis. The combined uncertainties are then propagated through the MCFD solver to obtain uncertainties of the QoIs, based on which probability-boxes are constructed for validation. The proposed approach relies on three machine learning methods: feedforward neural networks and principal component analysis for surrogate modeling, and Gaussian processes for model form uncertainty modeling. The whole process is implemented within the framework of an open-source deep learning library PyTorch with graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration, thus ensuring the efficiency of the computation. The results demonstrate that with the support of high-resolution data, the uncertainties of MCFD simulations can be significantly reduced. The proposed approach has the potential for other applications that involve numerical models with empirical parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Yang & Wang, Dewei & Sun, Xiaodong & Liu, Yang & Dinh, Nam & Hu, Rui, 2021. "Uncertainty quantification for Multiphase-CFD simulations of bubbly flows: a machine learning-based Bayesian approach supported by high-resolution experiments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:212:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021001770
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107636
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832021001770
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107636?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Radaideh, Majdi I. & Kozlowski, Tomasz, 2020. "Surrogate modeling of advanced computer simulations using deep Gaussian processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Radaideh, Majdi I. & Borowiec, Katarzyna & Kozlowski, Tomasz, 2019. "Integrated framework for model assessment and advanced uncertainty quantification of nuclear computer codes under Bayesian statistics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 357-377.
    3. Galushin, Sergey & Grishchenko, Dmitry & Kudinov, Pavel, 2020. "Implementation of framework for assessment of severe accident management effectiveness in Nordic BWR," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. Nguyen, H.D. & Gouno, E., 2020. "Bayesian inference for Common cause failure rate based on causal inference with missing data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    5. Shortridge, Julie & Aven, Terje & Guikema, Seth, 2017. "Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 12-23.
    6. Simon, Christophe & Bicking, Frédérique, 2017. "Hybrid computation of uncertainty in reliability analysis with p-box and evidential networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 629-638.
    7. Zugazagoitia, Eneko & Queral, Cesar & Fernández-Cosials, Kevin & Gómez, Javier & Durán, Luis Felipe & Sánchez-Torrijos, Jorge & Posada, José María, 2020. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a PWR LOCA sequence using parametric and non-parametric methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Li, Meng & Sadoughi, Mohammadkazem & Hu, Zhen & Hu, Chao, 2020. "A hybrid Gaussian process model for system reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    9. Bodda, Saran Srikanth & Gupta, Abhinav & Dinh, Nam, 2020. "Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    10. Scott Ferson & William L. Oberkampf, 2009. "Validation of imprecise probability models," International Journal of Reliability and Safety, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1/2/3), pages 3-22.
    11. Schöbi, Roland & Sudret, Bruno, 2019. "Global sensitivity analysis in the context of imprecise probabilities (p-boxes) using sparse polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 129-141.
    12. Wu, Xu & Kozlowski, Tomasz & Meidani, Hadi, 2018. "Kriging-based inverse uncertainty quantification of nuclear fuel performance code BISON fission gas release model using time series measurement data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 422-436.
    13. Marc C. Kennedy & Anthony O'Hagan, 2001. "Bayesian calibration of computer models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(3), pages 425-464.
    14. El Moçayd, Nabil & Shadi Mohamed, M. & Ouazar, Driss & Seaid, Mohammed, 2020. "Stochastic model reduction for polynomial chaos expansion of acoustic waves using proper orthogonal decomposition," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Zihan & Daeipour, Mohamad & Xu, Hongyi, 2023. "Quantification and propagation of Aleatoric uncertainties in topological structures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    2. Chen, Jie & Yu, Yang & Liu, Yongming, 2022. "Physics-guided mixture density networks for uncertainty quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    3. Zhao, Yunjie & Cheng, Xi & Zhang, Taihong & Wang, Lei & Shao, Wei & Wiart, Joe, 2023. "A global–local attention network for uncertainty analysis of ground penetrating radar modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    4. Li, Shen & Kim, Do Kyun & Benson, Simon, 2021. "A probabilistic approach to assess the computational uncertainty of ultimate strength of hull girders," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    5. Guo, Zehua & Dailey, Ryan & Feng, Tangtao & Zhou, Yukun & Sun, Zhongning & Corradini, Michael L & Wang, Jun, 2021. "Uncertainty analysis of ATF Cr-coated-Zircaloy on BWR in-vessel accident progression during a station blackout," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Wang, Jian & Gao, Shibin & Yu, Long & Zhang, Dongkai & Xie, Chenlin & Chen, Ke & Kou, Lei, 2023. "Data-driven lightning-related failure risk prediction of overhead contact lines based on Bayesian network with spatiotemporal fragility model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    7. Guan, Xuefei, 2024. "Sparse moment quadrature for uncertainty modeling and quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    8. Kröker, Ilja & Oladyshkin, Sergey, 2022. "Arbitrary multi-resolution multi-wavelet-based polynomial chaos expansion for data-driven uncertainty quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo, Zehua & Dailey, Ryan & Feng, Tangtao & Zhou, Yukun & Sun, Zhongning & Corradini, Michael L & Wang, Jun, 2021. "Uncertainty analysis of ATF Cr-coated-Zircaloy on BWR in-vessel accident progression during a station blackout," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    2. Yuan, Xiukai & Qian, Yugeng & Chen, Jingqiang & Faes, Matthias G.R. & Valdebenito, Marcos A. & Beer, Michael, 2023. "Global failure probability function estimation based on an adaptive strategy and combination algorithm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Radaideh, Majdi I. & Kozlowski, Tomasz, 2020. "Surrogate modeling of advanced computer simulations using deep Gaussian processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Wang, Chong & Matthies, Hermann G., 2019. "Novel model calibration method via non-probabilistic interval characterization and Bayesian theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 84-92.
    5. Kwag, Shinyoung & Gupta, Abhinav & Dinh, Nam, 2018. "Probabilistic risk assessment based model validation method using Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-393.
    6. Xu, Yanwen & Renteria, Anabel & Wang, Pingfeng, 2022. "Adaptive surrogate models with partially observed information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    7. Wu, Danqing & Lu, Zhenzhou & Wang, Yanping & Cheng, Lei, 2015. "Model validation and calibration based on component functions of model output," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 59-70.
    8. Yuan, Xiukai & Faes, Matthias G.R. & Liu, Shaolong & Valdebenito, Marcos A. & Beer, Michael, 2021. "Efficient imprecise reliability analysis using the Augmented Space Integral," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    9. Yao, Wen & Zheng, Xiaohu & Zhang, Jun & Wang, Ning & Tang, Guijian, 2023. "Deep adaptive arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion: A mini-data-driven semi-supervised method for uncertainty quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    10. Radaideh, Majdi I. & Borowiec, Katarzyna & Kozlowski, Tomasz, 2019. "Integrated framework for model assessment and advanced uncertainty quantification of nuclear computer codes under Bayesian statistics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 357-377.
    11. Zhao, Lufeng & Lu, Zhenzhou & Yun, Wanying & Wang, Wenjin, 2017. "Validation metric based on Mahalanobis distance for models with multiple correlated responses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 80-89.
    12. Li, Wei & Chen, Wei & Jiang, Zhen & Lu, Zhenzhou & Liu, Yu, 2014. "New validation metrics for models with multiple correlated responses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-11.
    13. Xiong, Qingwen & Qian, Libo & Song, Gongle & Yang, Jiewei & Liu, Yu & Deng, Jian & Qiu, Zhifang, 2024. "Realistic performance assessment of FeCrAl-UN/U3Si2 accident tolerant fuel under loss-of-coolant accident scenario," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    14. Li, Chenzhao & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2016. "Role of calibration, validation, and relevance in multi-level uncertainty integration," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 32-43.
    15. Francesco Di Maio & Nicola Pedroni & Barnabás Tóth & Luciano Burgazzi & Enrico Zio, 2021. "Reliability Assessment of Passive Safety Systems for Nuclear Energy Applications: State-of-the-Art and Open Issues," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-17, August.
    16. Xu, Yanwen & Kohtz, Sara & Boakye, Jessica & Gardoni, Paolo & Wang, Pingfeng, 2023. "Physics-informed machine learning for reliability and systems safety applications: State of the art and challenges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    17. Mullins, Joshua & Ling, You & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Sun, Lin & Strachan, Alejandro, 2016. "Separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic model validation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 49-59.
    18. Mazgaj, Piotr & Darnowski, Piotr & Kaszko, Aleksej & Hortal, Javier & Dusic, Milorad & Mendizábal, Rafael & Pelayo, Fernando, 2022. "Demonstration of the E-BEPU methodology for SL-LOCA in a Gen-III PWR reactor," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    19. Ling, Chunyan & Lu, Zhenzhou & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2020. "An efficient method based on AK-MCS for estimating failure probability function," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    20. Matthias Katzfuss & Joseph Guinness & Wenlong Gong & Daniel Zilber, 2020. "Vecchia Approximations of Gaussian-Process Predictions," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 25(3), pages 383-414, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:212:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021001770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.