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Kriging-based inverse uncertainty quantification of nuclear fuel performance code BISON fission gas release model using time series measurement data

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  • Wu, Xu
  • Kozlowski, Tomasz
  • Meidani, Hadi

Abstract

In nuclear reactor fuel performance simulation, fission gas release (FGR) and swelling involve treatment of several complicated and interrelated physical processes, which inevitably depend on uncertain input parameters. However, the uncertainties associated with these input parameters are only known by “expert judgment†. In this paper, inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) under the Bayesian framework is applied to BISON code FGR model based on Risø-AN3 time series experimental data. Inverse UQ seeks statistical descriptions of the uncertain input parameters that are consistent with the available measurement data. It always captures the uncertainties in its estimates rather than merely determining the best-fit values. Kriging metamodel is applied to greatly reduce the computational cost during Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Xu & Kozlowski, Tomasz & Meidani, Hadi, 2018. "Kriging-based inverse uncertainty quantification of nuclear fuel performance code BISON fission gas release model using time series measurement data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 422-436.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:169:y:2018:i:c:p:422-436
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.09.029
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    1. Radaideh, Majdi I. & Borowiec, Katarzyna & Kozlowski, Tomasz, 2019. "Integrated framework for model assessment and advanced uncertainty quantification of nuclear computer codes under Bayesian statistics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 357-377.
    2. Liu, Yang & Wang, Dewei & Sun, Xiaodong & Liu, Yang & Dinh, Nam & Hu, Rui, 2021. "Uncertainty quantification for Multiphase-CFD simulations of bubbly flows: a machine learning-based Bayesian approach supported by high-resolution experiments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Guo, Zehua & Dailey, Ryan & Feng, Tangtao & Zhou, Yukun & Sun, Zhongning & Corradini, Michael L & Wang, Jun, 2021. "Uncertainty analysis of ATF Cr-coated-Zircaloy on BWR in-vessel accident progression during a station blackout," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    4. Xiong, Qingwen & Qian, Libo & Song, Gongle & Yang, Jiewei & Liu, Yu & Deng, Jian & Qiu, Zhifang, 2024. "Realistic performance assessment of FeCrAl-UN/U3Si2 accident tolerant fuel under loss-of-coolant accident scenario," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    5. Marrel, Amandine & Iooss, Bertrand, 2024. "Probabilistic surrogate modeling by Gaussian process: A review on recent insights in estimation and validation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    6. Francesco Di Maio & Nicola Pedroni & Barnabás Tóth & Luciano Burgazzi & Enrico Zio, 2021. "Reliability Assessment of Passive Safety Systems for Nuclear Energy Applications: State-of-the-Art and Open Issues," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-17, August.

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