IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v175y2018icp1-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation-based catastrophe-induced port loss estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Cao, Xinhu
  • Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee

Abstract

Seaports are critical infrastructure systems in the international economy. They are at the same time vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made catastrophes due to their special coastal and low-lying locations. Traditional catastrophe risk analyses focused more on regions, port cities, and port communities. Limited studies assessed catastrophe risks on ports as a specific system. This paper aims to develop a catastrophe-induced port loss estimation framework, based on a port operation simulation model, actual terminal records and historical hazard records. By using the typhoon hazard and the Port of Shenzhen as a case study, we find that (1) the worst-case scenario of a typhoon impact could cause a total loss of US$0.91 billion for a terminal with 16 berths; and (2) the annual predicted typhoon-induced loss for the same terminal for the next 5 years will reach approximately US$64 million, accounting for 19.7% of the terminal net profit in 2015. The results provide useful references for various port stakeholders in catastrophe risk assessment and mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Cao, Xinhu & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2018. "Simulation-based catastrophe-induced port loss estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:175:y:2018:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.02.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832017307172
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2018.02.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jasmine Siu Lee Lam & Jonatan A. Lassa, 2017. "Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Branislav Dragović & Ernestos Tzannatos & Nam Kuy Park, 2017. "Simulation modelling in ports and container terminals: literature overview and analysis by research field, application area and tool," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 4-34, March.
    3. Na, Ung Jin & Shinozuka, Masanobu, 2009. "Simulation-based seismic loss estimation of seaport transportation system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 722-731.
    4. Kermanshah, A. & Derrible, S., 2016. "A geographical and multi-criteria vulnerability assessment of transportation networks against extreme earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 39-49.
    5. Jasmine Siu Lee Lam & Shiling Su, 2015. "Disruption risks and mitigation strategies: an analysis of Asian ports," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 415-435, July.
    6. Yu, Soonyoung & Kim, Sung-Wook & Oh, Chang-Whan & An, Hyunuk & Kim, Jin-Man, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of disaster resilience: An empirical study on the importance of post-disaster recovery costs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 6-17.
    7. Branislav Dragović & Nam Kyu Park & Zoran Radmilović & Vladislav Maraš, 2005. "Simulation Modelling of Ship-Berth Link With Priority Service," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 7(4), pages 316-335, December.
    8. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
    9. Branislav Dragović & Nam Kyu Park & Zoran Radmilović, 2006. "Ship-berth link performance evaluation: simulation and analytical approaches," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 281-299, July.
    10. repec:idb:brikps:publication-detail,7101.html?id=68568 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kim, Kap Hwan & Park, Young-Man, 2004. "A crane scheduling method for port container terminals," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(3), pages 752-768, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cao, Xinhu & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2019. "A fast reaction-based port vulnerability assessment: Case of Tianjin Port explosion," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 11-33.
    2. Laure Rousset & César Ducruet, 2020. "Disruptions in Spatial Networks: a Comparative Study of Major Shocks Affecting Ports and Shipping Patterns," Post-Print halshs-02588551, HAL.
    3. Nocera, Fabrizio & Contento, Alessandro & Gardoni, Paolo, 2024. "Risk analysis of supply chains: The role of supporting structures and infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Kuhla, Kilian & Willner, Sven N & Otto, Christian & Levermann, Anders, 2023. "Resilience of international trade to typhoon-related supply disruptions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Shen, Zhonghui & Wei, Kai, 2021. "Stochastic model of tropical cyclones along China coast including the effects of spatial heterogeneity and ocean feedback," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Hong, Xu & Wan, Zhiqiang & Chen, Jianbing, 2023. "Parallel assessment of the tropical cyclone wind hazard at multiple locations using the probability density evolution method integrated with the change of probability measure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    7. Cremen, Gemma & Bozzoni, Francesca & Pistorio, Silvia & Galasso, Carmine, 2022. "Developing a risk-informed decision-support system for earthquake early warning at a critical seaport," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    8. Zhou, Yusheng & Li, Xue & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2022. "Holistic risk assessment of container shipping service based on Bayesian Network Modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Branislav Dragović & Ernestos Tzannatos & Nam Kuy Park, 2017. "Simulation modelling in ports and container terminals: literature overview and analysis by research field, application area and tool," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 4-34, March.
    2. Pitilakis, Kyriazis & Argyroudis, Sotiris & Fotopoulou, Stavroula & Karafagka, Stella & Kakderi, Kalliopi & Selva, Jacopo, 2019. "Application of stress test concepts for port infrastructures against natural hazards. The case of Thessaloniki port in Greece," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 240-257.
    3. Bierwirth, Christian & Meisel, Frank, 2010. "A survey of berth allocation and quay crane scheduling problems in container terminals," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 615-627, May.
    4. Xueni Gou & Jasmine Siu Lee Lam, 2019. "Risk analysis of marine cargoes and major port disruptions," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(4), pages 497-523, December.
    5. Frank Meisel & Christian Bierwirth, 2013. "A Framework for Integrated Berth Allocation and Crane Operations Planning in Seaport Container Terminals," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 131-147, May.
    6. Debjit Roy & René De Koster & René Bekker, 2020. "Modeling and Design of Container Terminal Operations," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 686-715, May.
    7. Jia, Shuai & Li, Chung-Lun & Xu, Zhou, 2020. "A simulation optimization method for deep-sea vessel berth planning and feeder arrival scheduling at a container port," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 174-196.
    8. Roy, D. & de Koster, M.B.M., 2014. "Modeling and Design of Container Terminal Operations," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2014-008-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    9. Damla Kizilay & Deniz Türsel Eliiyi, 2021. "A comprehensive review of quay crane scheduling, yard operations and integrations thereof in container terminals," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 1-42, March.
    10. Branislav Dragović & Nam Kyu Park & Zoran Radmilović, 2006. "Ship-berth link performance evaluation: simulation and analytical approaches," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 281-299, July.
    11. Buddhi A. Weerasinghe & H. Niles Perera & Xiwen Bai, 2024. "Optimizing container terminal operations: a systematic review of operations research applications," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 26(2), pages 307-341, June.
    12. T. Jonker & M. B. Duinkerken & N. Yorke-Smith & A. Waal & R. R. Negenborn, 2021. "Coordinated optimization of equipment operations in a container terminal," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 281-311, June.
    13. Balakrishnan, Srijith & Lim, Taehoon & Zhang, Zhanmin, 2022. "A methodology for evaluating the economic risks of hurricane-related disruptions to port operations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 58-79.
    14. Cao, Xinhu & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2019. "A fast reaction-based port vulnerability assessment: Case of Tianjin Port explosion," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 11-33.
    15. Jidong Wu & Ying Li & Ning Li & Peijun Shi, 2018. "Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 17-30, January.
    16. Rahimi-Golkhandan, Armin & Garvin, Michael J. & Brown, Bryan L., 2019. "Characterizing and measuring transportation infrastructure diversity through linkages with ecological stability theory," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 114-130.
    17. Yuan, Shuai & Skinner, Bradley & Huang, Shoudong & Liu, Dikai, 2013. "A new crossover approach for solving the multiple travelling salesmen problem using genetic algorithms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 72-82.
    18. Nicola Ranger & Stéphane Hallegatte & Sumana Bhattacharya & Murthy Bachu & Satya Priya & K. Dhore & Farhat Rafique & P. Mathur & Nicolas Naville & Fanny Henriet & Celine Herweijer & Sanjib Pohit & Jan, 2011. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 139-167, January.
    19. Mehryar, Sara & Sasson, Idan & Surminski, Swenja, 2022. "Supporting urban adaptation to climate change: what role can resilience measurement tools play?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113367, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Antje Otto & Kristine Kern & Wolfgang Haupt & Peter Eckersley & Annegret H. Thieken, 2021. "Ranking local climate policy: assessing the mitigation and adaptation activities of 104 German cities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-23, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:175:y:2018:i:c:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.