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Creating risk management strategies based on uncertain assumptions and aspects from assumption-based planning

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  • Berner, Christine Louise
  • Flage, Roger

Abstract

Risk assessments are performed to support decision-making, which could have a long-term impact, for example decisions related to the use of different techniques to plug and abandon an old oil well. The uncertainties related to potential future events and their consequences are in this case often large, which may lead to the introduction of uncertain assumptions and thus make it difficult to ensure that the decision made also provides an acceptable risk level for the future. Recently, a scheme for the systematic treatment of uncertain assumptions in (semi-)quantitative risk assessments was proposed. The suggested scheme focused on how a risk analyst can treat and reflect uncertainties related to the assumptions underlying such a risk assessment. In the present paper, we extend this scheme to provide guidance also to risk managers on how to follow up assumptions after the risk assessment has been performed and the decision made. The aim is to provide a systematic scheme for the development of strategies, motivated by so-called assumption-based planning, that risk managers can use to ensure an acceptable long-term risk level. An example is included to illustrate the use of the suggested scheme.

Suggested Citation

  • Berner, Christine Louise & Flage, Roger, 2017. "Creating risk management strategies based on uncertain assumptions and aspects from assumption-based planning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 10-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:167:y:2017:i:c:p:10-19
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berner, Christine Louise & Flage, Roger, 2016. "Comparing and integrating the NUSAP notational scheme with an uncertainty based risk perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 185-194.
    2. Ides Boone & Yves Van der Stede & Jeroen Dewulf & Winy Messens & Marc Aerts & Georges Daube & Koen Mintiens, 2010. "NUSAP: a method to evaluate the quality of assumptions in quantitative microbial risk assessment," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 337-352, April.
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    7. Aven, Terje, 2008. "A semi-quantitative approach to risk analysis, as an alternative to QRAs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 790-797.
    8. Aven, Terje, 2016. "On the use of conservatism in risk assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 33-38.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bani-Mustafa, Tasneem & Flage, Roger & Vasseur, Dominique & Zeng, Zhiguo & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "An extended method for evaluating assumptions deviations in quantitative risk assessment and its application to external flooding risk assessment of a nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Flage, Roger & Askeland, Tore, 2020. "Assumptions in quantitative risk assessments: When explicit and when tacit?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

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