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Methodology for collision risk assessment of an airspace flow corridor concept

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  • Zhang, Yimin
  • Shortle, John
  • Sherry, Lance

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology to estimate the collision risk associated with a future air-transportation concept called the flow corridor. This concept is designed to reduce congestion and increase throughput in en-route airspace by creating dedicated flight corridors across the continent. The methodology is a hybrid collision-risk methodology combining Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic event trees. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the movement of aircraft within the corridor and to identify potential trajectories that might lead to a collision. Dynamic event trees are used to evaluate the effectiveness of subsequent safety layers that protect against collisions. The overall risk assessment captures the unique characteristics of the flow corridor concept, including self-separation within the corridor, lane change maneuvers, speed adjustments, and the automated separation assurance system. A tradeoff between safety and throughput is conducted, and a sensitivity analysis identifies the most critical parameters in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yimin & Shortle, John & Sherry, Lance, 2015. "Methodology for collision risk assessment of an airspace flow corridor concept," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 444-455.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:142:y:2015:i:c:p:444-455
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.05.015
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    1. Ale, B.J.M. & Bellamy, L.J. & van der Boom, R. & Cooper, J. & Cooke, R.M. & Goossens, L.H.J. & Hale, A.R. & Kurowicka, D. & Morales, O. & Roelen, A.L.C. & Spouge, J., 2009. "Further development of a Causal model for Air Transport Safety (CATS): Building the mathematical heart," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(9), pages 1433-1441.
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    3. Shalev, Dan M. & Tiran, Joseph, 2007. "Condition-based fault tree analysis (CBFTA): A new method for improved fault tree analysis (FTA), reliability and safety calculations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(9), pages 1231-1241.
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    1. Dai, Wei & Quek, Zhi Hao & Low, Kin Huat, 2024. "Probabilistic modeling and reasoning of conflict detection effectiveness by tracking systems towards safe urban air mobility operations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    2. Zhong, Gang & Du, Sen & Zhang, Honghai & Zhou, Jiangying & Liu, Hao, 2024. "Demarcation method of safety separations for sUAV based on collision risk estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    3. Valdés, Rosa Maria Arnaldo & Comendador, Victor Fernando Gómez & Castán, Javier Alberto Perez & Sanz, Alvaro Rodriguez & Sanz, Luis Perez & Ayra, Eduardo Sanchez & Nieto, Francisco Javier Saez, 2019. "Development of safety performance functions (SPFs) to analyse and predict aircraft loss of separation in accordance with the characteristics of the airspace," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 143-161.
    4. Bojia Ye & Zhao Yang & Lili Wan & Yunlong Dong, 2019. "Multi-Objective Evaluation of Airborne Self-Separation Procedure in Flow Corridors Based on TOPSIS and Entropy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.

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