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Dynamic fault tree analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in probabilistic safety assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Durga Rao, K.
  • Gopika, V.
  • Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.
  • Kushwaha, H.S.
  • Verma, A.K.
  • Srividya, A.

Abstract

Traditional fault tree (FT) analysis is widely used for reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. The behavior of components of complex systems and their interactions such as sequence- and functional-dependent failures, spares and dynamic redundancy management, and priority of failure events cannot be adequately captured by traditional FTs. Dynamic fault tree (DFT) extend traditional FT by defining additional gates called dynamic gates to model these complex interactions. Markov models are used in solving dynamic gates. However, state space becomes too large for calculation with Markov models when the number of gate inputs increases. In addition, Markov model is applicable for only exponential failure and repair distributions. Modeling test and maintenance information on spare components is also very difficult. To address these difficulties, Monte Carlo simulation-based approach is used in this work to solve dynamic gates. The approach is first applied to a problem available in the literature which is having non-repairable components. The obtained results are in good agreement with those in literature. The approach is later applied to a simplified scheme of electrical power supply system of nuclear power plant (NPP), which is a complex repairable system having tested and maintained spares. The results obtained using this approach are in good agreement with those obtained using analytical approach. In addition to point estimates of reliability measures, failure time, and repair time distributions are also obtained from simulation. Finally a case study on reactor regulation system (RRS) of NPP is carried out to demonstrate the application of simulation-based DFT approach to large-scale problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Durga Rao, K. & Gopika, V. & Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S. & Kushwaha, H.S. & Verma, A.K. & Srividya, A., 2009. "Dynamic fault tree analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in probabilistic safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(4), pages 872-883.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:4:p:872-883
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2008.09.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huang, Chin-Yu & Chang, Yung-Ruei, 2007. "An improved decomposition scheme for assessing the reliability of embedded systems by using dynamic fault trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1403-1412.
    2. Marseguerra, M. & Zio, E. & Devooght, J. & Labeau, P.E., 1998. "A concept paper on dynamic reliability via Monte Carlo simulation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 371-382.
    3. Zio, Enrico & Podofillini, Luca & Zille, Valérie, 2006. "A combination of Monte Carlo simulation and cellular automata for computing the availability of complex network systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 181-190.
    4. Zio, E. & Marella, M. & Podofillini, L., 2007. "A Monte Carlo simulation approach to the availability assessment of multi-state systems with operational dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 871-882.
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