IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v186y2019icp143-161.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Development of safety performance functions (SPFs) to analyse and predict aircraft loss of separation in accordance with the characteristics of the airspace

Author

Listed:
  • Valdés, Rosa Maria Arnaldo
  • Comendador, Victor Fernando Gómez
  • Castán, Javier Alberto Perez
  • Sanz, Alvaro Rodriguez
  • Sanz, Luis Perez
  • Ayra, Eduardo Sanchez
  • Nieto, Francisco Javier Saez

Abstract

The occurrence of Losses Of Separation between aircraft in an airspace that could lead to Mid Air Collisions (MAC) is of major concern to Air Traffic Management. This paper uses an innovative approach to develop Safety Performance Functions to predict the occurrence of losses of separation. This will improve the safety conditions under which airlines operate. A data driven approach is used to characterise the Losses Of Separation between aircraft as count data with an excess of zeros and over dispersion. Subsequently, the relationships between the number of aircraft conflicts in a particular route segment and the airspace design and traffic flow characteristics are modelled using Zero-inflated models. Based on the characteristics of the route segment, the distribution that most closely matches observations of the number of conflicts in airspace segments is a Zero-inflated negative binomial probability distribution. It also takes account of the large amount of null values that characterise safety occurrences in aviation.

Suggested Citation

  • Valdés, Rosa Maria Arnaldo & Comendador, Victor Fernando Gómez & Castán, Javier Alberto Perez & Sanz, Alvaro Rodriguez & Sanz, Luis Perez & Ayra, Eduardo Sanchez & Nieto, Francisco Javier Saez, 2019. "Development of safety performance functions (SPFs) to analyse and predict aircraft loss of separation in accordance with the characteristics of the airspace," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 143-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:186:y:2019:i:c:p:143-161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.02.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832018309190
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2019.02.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2013. "Regression Analysis of Count Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107667273, September.
    2. Zhang, Yimin & Shortle, John & Sherry, Lance, 2015. "Methodology for collision risk assessment of an airspace flow corridor concept," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 444-455.
    3. Xiaoqian Sun & Sebastian Wandelt & Xianbin Cao, 2017. "On Node Criticality in Air Transportation Networks," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 737-761, September.
    4. Iain L. MacDonald, 2017. "Models for count data," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(2), pages 187-190, April.
    5. Arnab Majumdar & Washington Ochieng & Robert B. Noland, 2003. "An Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Factors Affecting Aircraft Conflicts Based on Simulation Modelling," ERSA conference papers ersa03p389, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Li Zhu & Kimberly F. Sellers & Darcy Steeg Morris & Galit Shmueli, 2017. "Bridging the Gap: A Generalized Stochastic Process for Count Data," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(1), pages 71-80, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pang, Bizhao & Hu, Xinting & Dai, Wei & Low, Kin Huat, 2022. "UAV path optimization with an integrated cost assessment model considering third-party risks in metropolitan environments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Xu & Zhang, Xiaobo & Xie, Zhuan & Huang, Yiping, 2016. "Roads to innovation: Firm-level evidence from China:," IFPRI discussion papers 1542, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Preusse, Verena & Wollni, Meike, 2021. "Adoption of sustainable agricultural practices in the context of urbanisation and environmental stress – Evidence from farmers in the rural-urban interface of Bangalore, India," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 312690, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Luiz Paulo Fávero & Joseph F. Hair & Rafael de Freitas Souza & Matheus Albergaria & Talles V. Brugni, 2021. "Zero-Inflated Generalized Linear Mixed Models: A Better Way to Understand Data Relationships," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-28, May.
    4. Bono, Pierre-Henri & David, Quentin & Desbordes, Rodolphe & Py, Loriane, 2022. "Metro infrastructure and metropolitan attractiveness," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Scott, Ryan P. & Scott, Tyler A., 2019. "Investing in collaboration for safety: Assessing grants to states for oil and gas distribution pipeline safety program enhancement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 332-345.
    6. Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti & Luca Pedini, 2020. "ParMA: Parallelised Bayesian Model Averaging for Generalised Linear Models," Working Papers 2020:28, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    7. Landry, Craig E. & Shonkwiler, J. Scott & Whitehead, John C., 2020. "Economic Values of Coastal Erosion Management: Joint Estimation of Use and Existence Values with recreation demand and contingent valuation data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. John McLaren & Su Wang, 2020. "Effects of Reduced Workplace Presence on COVID-19 Deaths: An Instrumental-Variables Approach," NBER Working Papers 28275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Massimiliano Cal� & Sami H. Miaari, 2014. "Trade, employment and conflict: Evidence from the Second Intifada," HiCN Working Papers 186, Households in Conflict Network.
    10. Mónica Moreno-Gutiérrez & Víctor Hernández-Trejo & Ramón Valdivia-Alcalá & Judith Juárez-Mancilla & Plácido Roberto Cruz-Chávez & Ulianov Jakes-Cota, 2024. "Linking Tourist Willingness to Pay and Beach Management: A Travel Cost Analysis for Balandra Marine Park, Mexico," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-20, October.
    11. Kauffmann, Albrecht, 2021. "Befindet sich die "Metropolregion Mitteldeutschland" auf dem Weg zur räumlich integrierten Region? Eine empirische Untersuchung der Berufspendlerverflechtungen," Arbeitsberichte der ARL: Aufsätze, in: Rosenfeld, Martin T. W. & Stefansky, Andreas (ed.), "Metropolregion Mitteldeutschland" aus raumwissenschaftlicher Sicht, volume 30, pages 76-95, ARL – Akademie für Raumentwicklung in der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft.
    12. Barfield, Ashley & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2016. "A Distribution Transition Method for Extreme Responses in Recreation Survey Data," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235670, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Ghosh, Prasenjit & Rong, Jian & Khanna, Madhu & Wang, Weiwei & Miao, Ruiqing, 2017. "Have They Gone with the Wind? Indirect Effects of Wind Turbines on Bird Abundance," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258100, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Faia, Ester & Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Sanchez Arjona, Irene, 2017. "International Expansion and Riskiness of Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Mullahy, John, 2024. "Analyzing health outcomes measured as bounded counts," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    16. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    17. Christian Kleiber & Achim Zeileis, 2016. "Visualizing Count Data Regressions Using Rootograms," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(3), pages 296-303, July.
    18. D M Zimmer, 2023. "The effect of food stamps on fibre intake," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 28(2), pages 71-86, September.
    19. Cirillo, Valeria & Fanti, Lucrezia & Mina, Andrea & Ricci, Andrea, 2023. "The adoption of digital technologies: Investment, skills, work organisation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 89-105.
    20. H Zeynep Bulutgil & Neeraj Prasad, 2023. "Inequality, elections, and communal riots in India," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(4), pages 619-633, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:186:y:2019:i:c:p:143-161. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.