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Risk analysis of critical infrastructures emphasizing electricity supply and interdependencies

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  • Kjølle, G.H.
  • Utne, I.B.
  • Gjerde, O.

Abstract

Failures in critical infrastructures can cause major damage to society. Wide-area interruptions (blackouts) in the electricity supply system have severe impacts on societal critical functions and other critical infrastructures, but there is no agreed-upon framework on how to analyze and predict the reliability of electricity supply. Thus, there is a need for an approach to cross-sector risk analyses, which facilitates risk analysis of outages in the electricity supply system and enables investigation of cascading failures and consequences in other infrastructures. This paper presents such an approach, which includes contingency analysis (power flow) and reliability analysis of power systems, as well as use of a cascade diagram for investigating interdependencies. A case study was carried out together with the Emergency Preparedness Group in the city of Oslo, Norway and the network company Hafslund Nett. The case study results highlight the need for cross-sector analyses by showing that the total estimated societal costs are substantially higher when cascading effects and consequences to other infrastructures are taken into account compared to only considering the costs of electricity interruptions as seen by the network company. The approach is a promising starting point for cross-sector risk analysis of electricity supply interruptions and consequences for dependent infrastructures.

Suggested Citation

  • Kjølle, G.H. & Utne, I.B. & Gjerde, O., 2012. "Risk analysis of critical infrastructures emphasizing electricity supply and interdependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 80-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:105:y:2012:i:c:p:80-89
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.02.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Rahmatallah Poudineh & Tooraj Jamasb, 2017. "Electricity Supply Interruptions: Sectoral Interdependencies and the Cost of Energy Not Served for the Scottish Economy," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(1), pages 51-76, January.
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    15. Márcio das Chagas Moura & Helder Henrique Lima Diniz & Enrique López Droguett & Beatriz Sales da Cunha & Isis Didier Lins & Vicente Ribeiro Simoni, 2017. "Embedding resilience in the design of the electricity supply for industrial clients," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(11), pages 1-33, November.
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    17. Suo, Weilan & Wang, Lin & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Probabilistic risk assessment for interdependent critical infrastructures: A scenario-driven dynamic stochastic model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
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