Modeling infrastructure system interdependencies and socioeconomic impacts of failure in extreme events: emerging R&D challenges

Greater urbanization does not only mean higher concentrations of population and economic activities, but also increasing complexity and infrastructure interdependencies in the delivery of critical urban services such as energy, water, transport and communication. This paper reviews the current literature in these areas and identifies critical research and development challenges from the perspective—and for the benefit—of key stakeholders, considering their primary decision goals and context. From this vantage point, the critical evaluation framework is extended to include a classification of disruptions and extreme events and an overview of infrastructure modeling approaches and broader socioeconomic impacts assessment methods. Mapping the range of modeling and assessment methods against different decision contexts, critical gaps in knowledge and tools are identified to support the latter. Deep uncertainties characterize the challenge as each major component in the information and decision-making chain—from the frequency and intensity of a disruptive event, to assessing the first-order and immediate impacts of an infrastructure failure, to estimating the nature, extent and impact of cascading failures—multiplies the uncertainties. The emerging research challenges to deal with these interdependencies and uncertainties are discussed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015