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Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows

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  • Aiyar, Shekhar
  • Malacrino, Davide
  • Presbitero, Andrea F.

Abstract

Firms and policy makers are increasingly looking at friend-shoring to make supply chains less vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. We test whether these considerations are shaping FDI flows, using investment-level data on over 300,000 instances of greenfield FDI between 2003 and 2022. Estimates from a gravity model, which controls for standard push and pull factors, show an economically significant role for geopolitical alignment in driving the geographical footprint of bilateral investments. This result is robust to the inclusion of standard bilateral drivers of FDI – such as geographic distance and trade flows – and the strength of the effect has increased since 2018, with the resurgence of trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Moreover, our results are not limited to greenfield FDI, but hold also for M&As.

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  • Aiyar, Shekhar & Malacrino, Davide & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2024. "Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:83:y:2024:i:c:s0176268024000107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102508
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marijana Maksimović & Neven Cvetičanin & Ivan Nikolić, 2024. "Between Geopolitics And Geoeconomics – The Influence Of Foreign Direct Investments (Fdi) On The Economy Of Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 69(243), pages 69-92, October –.
    3. Lin, Wenlian & Cao, Jerry & Zhou, Sili & Li, Yong, 2024. "Political affinity, multilateralism, and foreign direct investment worldwide," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Clayton, Christopher & Coppola, Antonio & Maggiori, Matteo & Schreger, Jesse, 2025. "Chokepoints: Identifying Economic Pressure," SocArXiv zsc4x_v1, Center for Open Science.
    5. Muhammad Bahar Khan & Imran Naseem & Ahmad Hamidi & Mohd Khata Jabor & Nur Fatihah Abdullah Bandar & Khalid Zaman, 2024. "Strategic Influence in Focus: Assessing the Roles of Defense Expenditures, Foreign Capital, Political Stability, and Energy Sustainability in Geopolitical Dynamics," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 476-483, November.
    6. Alejandro Graziano & Monika Sztajerowska & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2024. "Trading places: How trade policy is reshaping multinational firms’ location," Discussion Papers 2024-06, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    7. Aiyar, Shekhar & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2024. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and "Connector" Countries," MPRA Paper 121726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cathrin Mohr & Christoph Trebesch, 2024. "Geoeconomics," CESifo Working Paper Series 11564, CESifo.
    9. Coveri, Andrea & Paglialunga, Elena & Zanfei, Antonello, 2024. "Global value chains and within-country inequality: The role of functional positioning," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 382-397.
    10. Mohr, Cathrin & Trebesch, Christoph, 2025. "Geoeconomics," Kiel Working Papers 2279, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Roy, Tonoy & Bhuiyan, Rubaiyat Ahsan & Ahmed, Sarwar Uddin & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2024. "Geopolitical conflict and firm bankruptcy risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign direct investment; Geoeconomics; Fragmentation; Political alignment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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