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Global Supply Chains: The Looming “Great Reallocation”

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  • Laura Alfaro
  • Davin Chor

Abstract

Global supply chains have come under unprecedented stress as a result of US-China trade tensions, the Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical shocks. We document shifts in the pattern of US participation in global value chains over the last four decades, in terms of partner countries, products, and modes, with a focus on the last five years (2017-2022). The available data point to a looming “great reallocation” in supply chain activity: Direct US sourcing from China has decreased, with low-wage locations (principally: Vietnam) and nearshoring/friendshoring alternatives (notably: Mexico) gaining in import share. The production line positioning of the US’ imports has also become more upstream, which is indicative of some reshoring of production stages. We sound several cautionary notes over the policies that have set this reallocation in motion: It is unclear if these measures will reduce US dependence on supply chains linked to China, and there are moreover already signs that prices of imports from Vietnam and Mexico are on the rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro & Davin Chor, 2023. "Global Supply Chains: The Looming “Great Reallocation”," NBER Working Papers 31661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31661
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Baldwin & Rebecca Freeman & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2023. "Hidden Exposure: Measuring US Supply Chain Reliance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(2 (Fall)), pages 79-167.
    2. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar & Li, Xiang, 2023. "Global political ties and the global financial cycle," IWH Discussion Papers 23/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Aiyar, Shekhar & Malacrino, Davide & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2024. "Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Ilkova, Ivelina & Lebastard, Laura & Serafini, Roberta, 2024. "Geopolitics and trade in the euro area and the United States: de-risking of import supplies?," Occasional Paper Series 359, European Central Bank.
    5. Crosignani, Matteo & Han, Lina & Macchiavelli, Marco & Silva, Andre F., 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 18986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Simola, Heli, 2023. "Trends in Chinese value chains 2018-2022," BOFIT Policy Briefs 14/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Shota Miki & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2024. "On the Restructuring of Global Semiconductor Supply Chains," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    8. Paul Lavery & Marina Spaliara & Holger Görg, 2024. "Private equity buyouts & firm exporting in crisis periods: Exploring a new channel," Working Papers 2024_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    9. Jason Dunn & Fernando Leibovici, 2024. "Decoupling Where it Matters? US Imports from China in Critical Sectors," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 1, pages 1-3, January.
    10. Haishi Li & Zhi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang & Jing Wu, 2024. "To Comply or Not to Comply: Understanding Neutral Country Supply Chain Responses to Russian Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 11110, CESifo.
    11. Aiyar, Shekhar & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2024. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and "Connector" Countries," MPRA Paper 121726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Duran-Fernandez, Roberto, 2024. "Nearshoring in Mexico: Navigating Expectations and Realities of the Reconfiguration of Global Value Chains," EconStor Preprints 301885, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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