IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pie/dsedps/2024-319.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Political instability and international trade in the European Union: A network-based approach

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Carnazza
  • Paolo Liberati
  • Agnese Sacchi

Abstract

In recent times, many countries have continued to deal with political instability due to difficulties in improving democratic practices and limiting episodes of violence and terrorism. Using a sample of 27 European Union (EU) countries observed yearly during the period 1999-2021, we empirically analyze how the domestic political instability of a given country can be affected by the degree of trade diversification adjusted for the political instability of the nonEU countries it trades with. We adopt a network-based approach and build a novel geopolitical dependency index. We find there is a risk of importing political instability along with international trade by increasing trade concentration or the import share from more politically unstable non-EU countries. Given the relevance of the United States and China for European economic activity, we also test our main hypothesis by adjusting the geopolitical dependency index. We see China’s prominent role in trade and political tension in EU countries compared to the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Carnazza & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2024. "Political instability and international trade in the European Union: A network-based approach," Discussion Papers 2024/319, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/319
    Note: ISSN 2039-1854
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ec.unipi.it/documents/Ricerca/papers/2024-319.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Macartan Humphreys, 2005. "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 508-537, August.
    2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2010. "The evolution of the world trade web: a weighted-network analysis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 479-514, August.
    3. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    4. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    5. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    6. Christopher S. P. Magee & Stephen P. Magee, 2008. "The United States is a Small Country in World Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 990-1004, November.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui & Yanrui Wu, 2024. "Political relations and trade: New evidence from Australia, China, and the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 71(3), pages 253-275, July.
    10. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August.
    11. Giulia Rotundo & Anna D’Arcangelis, 2014. "Network of companies: an analysis of market concentration in the Italian stock market," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1893-1910, July.
    12. Luisa Blanco & Robin Grier, 2009. "Long Live Democracy: The Determinants of Political Instability in Latin America," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 76-95.
    13. Colantone, Italo & Stanig, Piero, 2018. "Global Competition and Brexit," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 201-218, May.
    14. William Robert Reed, 2015. "On the Practice of Lagging Variables to Avoid Simultaneity," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(6), pages 897-905, December.
    15. Jack A. Goldstone & Robert H. Bates & David L. Epstein & Ted Robert Gurr & Michael B. Lustik & Monty G. Marshall & Jay Ulfelder & Mark Woodward, 2010. "A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 190-208, January.
    16. Minoiu, Camelia & Reyes, Javier A., 2013. "A network analysis of global banking: 1978–2010," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 168-184.
    17. Goldberg,Pinelopi Koujianou & Reed,Tristan, 2023. "Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing ? And If So, Why? And What Is Next?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10392, The World Bank.
    18. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    19. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Tristan Reed, 2023. "Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing? If So, Why? And What Is Next?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(1 (Spring), pages 347-423.
    20. L. Guiso & H. Herrera & M. Morelli & T. Sonno, 2024. "Economic insecurity and the demand for populism in Europe," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 588-620, April.
    21. Cappelli, Federica & Carnazza, Giovanni & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2023. "Crude oil, international trade and political stability: Do network relations matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    22. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    23. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2018. "The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 936-953, October.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1divsbu8t888r9vqektjbmlqoa is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Aiyar, Shekhar & Malacrino, Davide & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2024. "Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    26. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 149-187, June.
    27. Mr. Luc Eyraud & Vitor Gaspar & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2017. "Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2017/018, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    29. Anthony Annett, 2001. "Social Fractionalization, Political Instability, and the Size of Government," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-7.
    30. Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2009. "On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 15-29, March.
    31. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin & Özkan, Oktay, 2023. "Geopolitical oil price uncertainty transmission into core inflation: Evidence from two of the biggest global players," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    32. Cappelli, Federica & Carnazza, Giovanni, 2023. "The Multi-dimensional Oil Dependency Index (MODI) for the European Union," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dirks, Maximilian & Schmidt, Torsten, 2023. "The relationship between political instability and economic growth in advanced economies: Empirical evidence from a panel VAR and a dynamic panel FE-IV analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 1000, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Eugenio Levi & Isabelle Sin & Steven Stillman, 2021. "Understanding the Origins of Populist Political Parties and the Role of External Shocks," Working Papers 21_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    3. Eugenio Levi & Isabelle Sin & Steven Stillman, 2024. "The lasting impact of external shocks on political opinions and populist voting," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 349-374, January.
    4. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    5. Ishak Phoebe W., 2019. "Autocratic Survival Strategies: Does Oil Make a Difference?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-22, May.
    6. Snower, Dennis J. & Bosworth, Steven J., 2021. "Economic, social and political fragmentation: Linking knowledge-biased growth, identity, populism and protectionism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. L. Guiso & H. Herrera & M. Morelli & T. Sonno, 2024. "Economic insecurity and the demand for populism in Europe," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 588-620, April.
    8. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    9. Bang, James T. & Mitra, Aniruddha, 2011. "Brain drain and institutions of governance: Educational attainment of immigrants to the US 1988-1998," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 335-354, September.
    10. Muhammad Zahid Naeem, 2020. "Political Instability, Trade Openness And Economic Growth In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 183-190, December.
    11. Knight, John, 2013. "The economic causes and consequences of social instability in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 17-26.
    12. Aiyar, Shekhar & Malacrino, Davide & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2024. "Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Federica Cappelli & Giovanni Carnazza, 2025. "Close ties: how trade dynamics and environmental regulations shape international dependence on oil," SEEDS Working Papers 0125, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Jan 2025.
    14. Rexford Abaidoo & Elvis Kwame Agyapong, 2022. "Commodity price volatility, inflation uncertainty and political stability," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 69(3), pages 351-381, September.
    15. Robert MacCulloch & Silvia Pezzini, 2010. "The Roles of Freedom, Growth, and Religion in the Taste for Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 329-358, May.
    16. Marco Manacorda & Guido Tabellini & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Mobile internet and the rise of political tribalism in Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp1877, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Philip Barrett & Mariia Bondar & Sophia Chen & Mali Chivakul & Deniz Igan, 2024. "Pricing protest: the response of financial markets to social unrest," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1419-1450.
    18. Chandan Sharma, 2021. "Does Corruption Sand The Wheels Of Financial Sector Development? Evidence From Global Panel Data," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions (JFMMI), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-32, December.
    19. Pooja Karnane & Michael A. Quinn, 2019. "Political instability, ethnic fractionalization and economic growth," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 435-461, April.
    20. Maurice Obstfeld, 2021. "Globalization and nationalism: Retrospect and prospect," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 675-690, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    political instability; trade diversification; network analysis; geopolitical dependency; EU countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dspisit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.